Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a notable increase of almost $2,000 in the last 24 hours, reaching levels near $112,892. This upward movement occurs as investors await the monetary policy decision from the Federal Reserve (Fed) this Wednesday. The widespread expectation is centered on a possible rate cut that would impact the global economy and the Bitcoin price FOMC meeting.
Markets are pricing in a high probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut. This measure would bring the target interest rate to 4.00%, marking a shift in U.S. monetary policy. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders assign a 99.9% probability to this cut in October. Furthermore, the same tool suggests an 84.8% probability of an additional cut by December. This monetary easing is seen as positive for risk assets.
This anticipated monetary easing responds to signs of economic cooling in the United States. Recent data shows a weakening in manufacturing activity and a slowdown in inflationary momentum. Investors await the FOMC statement at 18:00. Subsequently, the press conference by Chairman Jerome Powell at 18:30 will be thoroughly analyzed. Powell’s tone on future cuts will be decisive for the markets.
Can Bitcoin Sustain the Bullish Momentum Post-FOMC?
The tone Powell uses will be crucial for risk assets like Bitcoin. A markedly “dovish” (flexible) stance could drive more capital flows into cryptocurrencies, weakening the dollar. However, if Powell adopts a cautious tone regarding inflation, it could temporarily strengthen the Dollar Index (DXY). This would exert downward pressure on BTC’s price. The crypto market shows technical indecision before the announcement, reflected in an RSI near 49. Technical analysis shows a double-top pattern near $115,000.
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin faces that immediate resistance at $115,000. A decisive break above the key Fibonacci level of $117,600 could open the way toward targets of $120,500. Conversely, a pullback below the $112,250 support could trigger a short-term correction toward $108,600. Volatility will remain high as confirmation from the Fed regarding the Bitcoin price FOMC meeting is awaited.
