The Bitcoin price faces renewed pressure dropping nearly 4% in the last 24 hours, sitting at a critical inflection point for its long-term trend. According to data highlighted by the analysis firm Alphractal, the asset is struggling to maintain a vital historical support level as the 2025 annual close approaches.
Specifically, the cryptocurrency is trading dangerously close to the 2-Year Simple Moving Average (SMA), located at 82,800 dollars, a cycle marker that has defined major trends in the past. In parallel, Glassnode data reveals that long-term holders increased their selling activity by over 130% during December, going from 116,000 to 269,000 BTC in net outflows, adding significant weight to the current price action.
On the other hand, the importance of this level lies in its history as a dividing line between bull cycle survival and prolonged structural weakness. Historically, when the Bitcoin price closes a monthly candle below this moving average, as happened in mid-2022, the market tends to experience severe corrections, falling an additional 51% on that occasion before attempting any sustainable recovery movement.
Likewise, analysts emphasize that what is crucial is not intraday action, but the December monthly candle close, at which point the market locks in a full month of data to judge the trend. If bulls fail to defend this zone before December 31, a technical breakdown signal would be confirmed, leaving the asset vulnerable to an extended bearish phase at the start of the new year.
Can the market avoid a structural breakdown towards 73,000 dollars?
If the support zone between 82,800 and 81,100 dollars fails to hold firm, downside risks will expand quickly for the main cryptocurrency. A confirmed break below this range opens the door toward a deeper correction of approximately 15%, projecting the next major target at 73,300 dollars, a level that has not been visited in recent months.
However, to invalidate this negative outlook, buyers have the urgent task of pushing the asset’s value above key resistances. The market needs to reclaim 88,200 dollars to reduce immediate pressure and seek a sustained move above 94,500 dollars, which would restore the bullish structure and return momentum control to demand.
Finally, Bitcoin remains trapped in a decisive battle between a vital cycle support and growing distribution by veteran investors. As long as a safe monthly close above the 2-year SMA is not achieved, the risk of a significant drop remains latent in the short term, keeping traders on high alert regarding year-end volatility.
The Bitcoin price risks falling 15% if it breaks the 82,800 dollar support before closing the year 2025, according to historical cycle data.
