Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near $102,100. Investors are weighing mixed signals across markets. Corporate Bitcoin holdings continue to expand, although MicroStrategy’s dominance is slipping. Analysts are closely watching a potential Bitcoin breakout above $104,000. This move could trigger the digital asset’s next rally.
Morgan Stanley, for its part, advises caution. It labels this phase as a potential profit-taking season. Additionally, a stronger US dollar adds short-term pressure. Nevertheless, BTC’s symmetrical triangle pattern hints at a possible breakout. It points towards $104,000 and even beyond.
On the other hand, MicroStrategy’s share of corporate BTC reserves has decreased. It now holds 60% of the total, down from 75% earlier. This is because more companies are adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets. Fidelity Digital Assets noted that corporate treasuries continue to tighten Bitcoin’s liquid supply. Most firms prefer holding rather than selling. This growing corporate adoption supports a positive long-term outlook for the asset.
Are we facing the calm before a strong surge or a deeper market correction?
However, Morgan Stanley strategist Denny Galindo warns. Bitcoin has entered its “fall season.” This is a phase in its four-year market cycle. In it, investors typically take profits before a potential downturn. Galindo compared Bitcoin’s pattern to natural seasons. He described a “three-up, one-down” rhythm. Fall represents the time to “harvest” gains. Yet, Michael Cyprys of Morgan Stanley added that institutional demand remains strong. Bitcoin ETFs hold over $137 billion in assets.
Furthermore, the US dollar strengthened. Markets anticipated the end of the prolonged government shutdown. The Dollar Index rose 0.19% to 99.63. This strength is supported by expectations that key economic data will be released soon. This could influence the Federal Reserve’s next move. A strong dollar typically puts pressure on Bitcoin‘s price.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) hovers near $102,100. It is trading within a narrowing range. This forms a symmetrical triangle on the 4-hour chart. This pattern indicates that the market is coiling before a decisive breakout. Traders are closely watching for a move above $104,000. This would likely trigger a rally towards $107,500. However, if Bitcoin slips below $99,200, a deeper pullback could follow. It would head towards $96,200 or $93,400. The Bitcoin breakout from this pattern will set the tone for the rest of the quarter.
