Bitcoin appears to be decoupling from the recent stock rally, reviving questions about its correlation with equities. By 4 de dic. de 2025, the cryptocurrency showed negative short-term alignment with major tech indexes even as it recorded sharp swings that diverged from the Nasdaq and S&P 500. These developments signal a material shift in the relationship between BTC and U.S. equities.
Since about 2020 Bitcoin had shown rising positive synchronization with U.S. equities, with 30-day rolling correlations frequently above 70% and some analyses putting short-term correlation as high as 0,87–0,88 versus the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. By 4 de dic. de 2025 that relationship had reversed in the short run: Bitcoin posted a 20-day correlation coefficient of -0,43 with the Nasdaq 100. Such a negative coefficient coincided historically with market bottoms for the token in prior episodes (summer 2021, agosto de 2024, septiembre de 2023), suggesting the metric’s potential signal value for traders.
The price path underlines the behavioral split. In mayo de 2025 Bitcoin traded around $105.000, while MicroStrategy (MSTR) — a long-standing corporate proxy for Bitcoin ownership — traded below $450, a roughly 30% discount to its 2024 peak. In octubre de 2025 Bitcoin experienced an intra-cycle collapse of as much as 36% from its all-time high, while the Nasdaq 100’s maximum drawdown during the same period was about 8% and the index stayed roughly 2% below its record high. These contrasts point to an asset whose volatility profile and drivers no longer mirror those of technology equities.
Correlation measures the statistical relationship between two assets’ returns; negative values indicate they move in opposite directions.
Beta quantifies how much an asset’s price swings relative to a benchmark; a beta above 1 implies larger moves than the benchmark.
Evidence of the decoupling of Bitcoin
Market participants and analysts attribute the divergence to several interacting forces. Some institutional investors and researchers note that maturation of market infrastructure and differentiated macro drivers have made Bitcoin more sensitive to idiosyncratic and geopolitical shocks than to equity sentiment alone. For example, analysts linked an October rally above $125.700 to macro stresses such as a U.S. government shutdown, which renewed interest in Bitcoin’s perceived store-of-value properties. Fabian Dori of Sygnum Bank is among those who connected that rally to macro events.
Corporate-proxy dynamics also changed investor flow behavior. MicroStrategy’s prolonged discount to intrinsic Bitcoin exposure underscored a market preference for direct crypto exposure over equity proxies, a development that reduces the former mechanical coupling between BTC and certain stocks. As one market practitioner put it, “Bitcoin has shown impressive resilience,” said David Hernandez, crypto investment specialist at 21Shares, summarizing the view that BTC can behave as a macro hedge in specific stress episodes.
For portfolio managers, a renewed divergence alters hedging and allocation calculus. If short-term negative correlation persists, Bitcoin could act as a tactical diversifier during equity drawdowns; however, its amplified volatility implies larger potential losses as well as gains, magnifying portfolio risk when used without position sizing discipline.
The recent shift from strong positive correlation to negative short-term alignment marks a material change in Bitcoin’s market behavior. It signals a return to more idiosyncratic price drivers and reduces the reliability of equity-based proxies for BTC exposure.
