Despite recent volatility and failed attempts to overcome overhead resistance, the price of Bitcoin holds firm at the 91,000 dollar level. This behavior has surprised analysts, as Bitcoin futures traders appear to refuse capitulation in the face of selling pressure. Recent data from derivatives platforms suggests that, while caution exists, there are no signs of structural panic in the current market.
Delving into the metrics, the Bitcoin monthly futures premium has held near 4% above spot markets. Although this figure is slightly below the neutral 5% level, aggregated figures from major exchanges indicate stability rather than extreme bearish sentiment. On the other hand, liquidations of leveraged bullish positions reached 144 million dollars following recent corrections. However, the perpetual futures funding rate stands at an annualized 4%, which reflects a bearish stance but without desperation from market operators.
Likewise, the BTC options delta skew has remained close to 11% over the past week. This signals that market participants have not materially adjusted their risk outlook. Put options continue to trade above the neutral 6% premium relative to call options, indicating that whales and market makers remain uneasy regarding downside exposure. Nevertheless, these levels are far from representing extreme stress within the financial ecosystem.
Does current stability suggest an imminent price recovery or greater caution?
The macroeconomic context adds layers of complexity to the current Bitcoin price situation. Trader sentiment has been pressured by five consecutive sessions of net outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). More than 2.26 billion dollars have exited these products, generating constant selling pressure throughout the trading day. While the figure is notable, it represents less than 2% of the overall Bitcoin ETF market, putting its long-term impact into perspective.
Additionally, the weakness is not exclusive to the cryptocurrency market, but extends to the traditional technology sector. Major companies like Oracle, Ubiquiti, and Roblox have fallen 19% or more in the past 30 days, reflecting a shift toward risk-off positioning. Inflation and the US job market situation restrict the Federal Reserve’s capacity to reduce interest rates, affecting all risk assets equally.
To conclude, although the “digital gold” narrative faces momentary challenges, the structure of the derivatives market offers some relief. The probability of BTC reclaiming higher levels, such as 95,000 dollars, is now closely tied to an improvement in macroeconomic conditions. As long as inflation and employment data remain uncertain, investors will maintain caution, waiting for external catalysts that define the next major trend.
