Bitcoin remained below $70,000 ahead of the US January jobs report, a figure that could either help the stablecoin rebound or negatively impact its performance and push it below the $70,000 level.
Bitcoin’s price action has shown a clear loss of momentum, reflected in recent closes below the $70,000 threshold. This break was interpreted by the market as a negative technical signal and has kept the medium- and long-term structure within a descending channel, limiting the potential for sustained recovery.
From a technical perspective, the most relevant resistance zone is concentrated between $71,000 and $72,500. Repeated rejections in this range have stalled any attempt at a rebound with volume. On the downside, the price is initially finding support near $69,400, with more significant support levels at $68,500, $67,600, and $66,500. A clear break below $65,000 would significantly deteriorate the short-term outlook.
Meanwhile, momentum indicators offer a mixed, though still cautious, reading. The daily RSI has begun to recover from deep oversold levels and is currently around 32.5, suggesting that selling pressure is easing. However, the MACD remains in negative territory, and although the crossover between its lines is narrowing, weekly technical summaries continue to lean toward sell signals, leaving any rebound vulnerable to failure without solid demand.
Liquidity, derivatives, and macro risks ahead of employment data
Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell over the weekend to single-digit levels and barely managed a marginal recovery, an environment that tends to discourage conviction-based buying. At the same time, aggregate spot volumes on major exchanges have decreased by nearly 30% since the end of 2025, thinning order books and increasing the likelihood of sharp intraday moves.
In the derivatives market, positioning appears highly polarized. On one hand, some contrarian traders highlight the accumulation of over $5.45 billion in short positions above current prices, which could trigger a rapid rebound if a chain reaction of sell-offs is triggered. On the other hand, the net monthly taker volume remains clearly negative, a sign that selling pressure continues to dominate and is not simply a matter of one-off profit-taking.
The macroeconomic calendar adds another layer of uncertainty. The consensus expects non-farm payrolls to show moderate gains, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.4% and the headline and core CPI rising by around 0.3% month-on-month. Stronger employment data or persistent inflation would reduce expectations of an early rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which currently assigns only a 17.7% probability to a 25-basis-point cut in March.
