The price of Bitcoin has configured a worrying technical pattern known as a Bitcoin bear flag on its daily chart, suggesting a continuation of the current downward trend. According to various technical analysts and recent market data, the absence of new buyers and the notable decrease in demand for exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are pressuring the asset’s valuation, increasing the likelihood of visiting new lows in the short term.
The technical details of this formation indicate that the BTC/USD pair has consolidated its price following the drop from the highs of $107,000 recorded on November 11. Recently, the rebound attempt was firmly rejected at the flag’s upper limit, located around $93,000. A daily close below the lower limit of $90,000 could open the way for a drop towards the pattern’s measured target at $67,380, a level that coincides with the 2021 cycle top and would represent a 25% decline from current levels.
The fundamental context supports this negative technical outlook, evidenced by data from intelligence firm Glassnode. The spot cumulative volume delta (CVD), which measures the net difference between buying and selling, has weakened significantly, moving from -$40.8 million to -$111.7 million last week. This sharp drop signals a clear rise in aggressive selling, suggesting softer buyer conviction and a tilt toward bearish sentiment on the part of institutional and retail investors.
Can the lack of institutional demand sink the price to 2021 lows?
Demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs has also shown signs of exhaustion, reversing previous inflows to record net outflows of over $700 million last week and an additional $60 million this Monday. Pseudonymous analyst Colin Talks Crypto suggests that while validation of the Bitcoin bear flag would imply a downward move, the $74,000 to $77,000 zone could act as a “likely bottom” where a powerful rebound would be expected if the price reaches those levels.
Likewise, traders like Aaron Dishner warn that current volume remains too weak to drive new highs. According to his analysis, the price could briefly revisit $92,200 or even approach $98,000 under the upper flag line, before continuing its downtrend. Thus, market structure seems to favor sellers, who maintain control while indicators such as MACD and RSI cool off following extreme oversold conditions.
To conclude, the market is at an inflection point where defending the $90,000 support will be vital to avoid confirming the pattern. Investors must be prepared for continued volatility, as the combination of technical factors and the withdrawal of institutional liquidity could accelerate the correction towards lower targets in the coming weeks.
