Bitcoin (BTC) started the last week of October with a rebound, hitting $114,500 at the weekly close. However, traders remain nervous. The digital asset now faces a key test. Bitcoin seeks historic monthly close if it manages to close above $115,750.
The BTC price managed to reclaim the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA). This is a vital level according to analyst ‘Rekt Capital’. The rebound has been strong from the macro range low. Despite this, confidence is not total. Analyst ‘Roman’ warns of a potential bearish “Head and Shoulders” pattern. This would be validated if the price falls below $109,000.
The context for “Uptober” 2025 is mixed. Currently, BTC is up only 1% since the month’s open. This barely prevents October from being a “red” month. On-chain data shows relief. Short-term holders (STHs) are back in profit. Their aggregate cost basis sits near $113,000.
Will macro data push Bitcoin towards $125,000?
Financial markets are optimistic for other reasons. Stocks rose on news of a possible US-China trade deal. Furthermore, the market awaits a key decision from the Federal Reserve (FOMC) this Wednesday. Data from the CME FedWatch Tool shows a probability above 95% of a 0.25% rate cut. This monetary policy could benefit risk assets like Bitcoin. The global economy is watching this decision.
Although volatility persists, some models are optimistic. Network economist Timothy Peterson shared an AI simulation. This model places a credible target of $125,000 before October ends. Investors are now watching if BTC can hold the 21-week EMA support. The month-end close will determine the short-term direction.
