Bitcoin accumulation trends have strengthened significantly despite a 10% drop over the last 30 days. Recent data confirms that institutional investor groups have shifted their strategy from distribution to massive buying following the price decline.
On-chain metrics reveal that whales and sharks are actively absorbing nearly 240% of the new yearly BTC issuance. This aggressive buying behavior coincides with a rise in Glassnode’s accumulation trend score (ATS), which is nearing 1 indicating intense buying pressure from large entities. Likewise, smaller investors with holdings between 10 and 1,000 BTC have also increased their positions taking advantage of current prices.
On the other hand, the yearly absorption rate by exchanges has plunged below -130%, signaling a historic outflow of coins toward self-custody. Furthermore, large holders with more than 100 BTC are acquiring almost one and a half times the new daily coin issuance, marking the fastest accumulation rate recorded in the asset’s history.
The market experienced a significant capitulation event on November 22, when realized losses reached $5.78 billion following the drop to $80,000. This level of losses is the highest since the FTX collapse in late 2022, suggesting that much of the “weak money” has exited the market. Thus, the clearing of speculative positions usually precedes important structural trend changes.
This behavioral pattern mirrors what was observed in July, which aligned with the rally toward the all-time high of $124,500 in August. Therefore, the current transition from distribution to accumulation across almost all cohorts could be laying the groundwork for a new bullish momentum sustained in the medium term.
Are we facing the prelude to an imminent bullish recovery?
Growing adoption by traditional finance is driving a structural shift in demand for the leading digital asset. With the emergence of new Bitcoin treasury companies and sustained ETF demand, available supply on exchanges continues to decrease rapidly. Consequently, the scarcity of liquid supply could act as an explosive catalyst for price if demand remains constant.
However, it is important to note that short-term holders have borne most of the recent financial pain. Realized losses by this group reached $3 billion, while long-term holders kept their losses comparatively contained. This indicates that market stress is concentrated primarily on recent buyers and not on convicted investors.
To conclude, the exhaustion of selling pressure from short-term holders could mark the end of the current correction. Analysts suggest that if Bitcoin accumulation trends continue at this pace, the market could reverse its bearish course soon. It is expected that the reduction of floating supply and whale resilience will drive a price recovery toward previous key levels.
