Benchmark concluded that Strategy remains the premier Bitcoin proxy, rejecting what it called a persistent “doom narrative” and emphasizing the firm’s concentrated bitcoin holdings and balance-sheet strength. The brokerage tied a $705 price target to a 2026 bitcoin assumption and highlighted large reserves and liquidity as evidence of engineered resilience as of December 1, 2025.
A “Bitcoin proxy” is a publicly traded company whose equity performance closely tracks bitcoin because it holds bitcoin on its balance sheet. Strategy reported holding 650,000 BTC as of December 1, 2025, at an average acquisition cost of $74,436 per coin, representing a total cost basis of $48.38 billion. Benchmark’s analysis places Strategy’s reported bitcoin reserves at $55.8 billion and identifies ultra-low-cost liabilities of $15.8 billion, creating a heavily leveraged but structurally defensive position.
The company established a $1.44 billion U.S. dollar cash reserve through common stock sales, described as intended to cover at least 12 months of dividend payments and to shore up near-term liquidity. Benchmark calculated a theoretical distress threshold below $12,700 per bitcoin, a level it described as distant given prevailing institutional demand.
Michael Saylor projects aggressive accumulation and has publicly set a personal price target for bitcoin at $150,000; corporate projections cited in the analysis include a target of 550,000 BTC by 2025 and a potential $1 trillion valuation of holdings by 2030.
Analyst endorsement and market risks
Benchmark anchored its $705 MSTR price target to an assumed bitcoin price of $225,000 in 2026 and described Strategy’s equity as having “multibagger potential” under that scenario. Benchmark added that this “multibagger potential” flows from the company’s leveraged exposure to bitcoin uplift coupled with access to convertible and preferred financings that it says reduce refinancing pressure.
Risks remain under debate. Concerns flagged by other industry participants include the prospect of index exclusion — notably from MSCI USA and the Nasdaq 100 — which some analysts estimate could trigger roughly $2.8 billion in passive outflows. Vanguard’s emergence as Strategy’s largest institutional shareholder was cited as evidence of growing mainstream allocation, even as the firm navigates index- and liquidity-related headwinds.
Recent market volatility framed the backdrop: bitcoin fell 5–6% on December 1, 2025, beneath $90,000, and the Crypto Fear and Greed Index registered 20, labeled “Extreme Fear.” Sovereign accumulation continued: El Salvador added 30 BTC within 30 days and holds 6,190.18 BTC, a fact Benchmark used to underline persistent institutional and sovereign demand. A short quote from the report summarized the view: Strategy presents “multibagger potential” for investors who accept its bitcoin price assumptions and capital structure.
Benchmark’s endorsement frames Strategy as a purpose-built vehicle to amplify bitcoin exposure, with a cash buffer and liability mix designed to withstand near-term volatility.
