ASTER fell 20% over the past week, placing the token’s near-term outlook under fresh scrutiny. The sharp decline, coupled with concentrated token holdings and heavy whale activity, raises the question at the heart of this Aster price prediction: can the market avoid a deeper collapse?
On-chain data shows a sequence of large disposals that intensified selling pressure. Whale address 0x7771 sold 3 million ASTER, realizing a $2.33 million loss at a 22% haircut, while another large holder moved 12.43 million ASTER (about $11.67 million) to a major exchange, signaling potential further selling. Market sentiment measures are extreme: the Fear & Greed Index stands at 11, and technical indicators register “Strong Sell” on both 4-hour and 1-week charts, with roughly 85% of short-term forecasts skewing negative.
A short-term technical projection in the same analysis points to a possible move to $0.61 by 21 de dic. de 2025. Immediate price behavior around $0.82 is critical; failure to reclaim that level could expose ASTER to an additional 27% decline toward $0.60. These thresholds define the path that would convert panic selling into a deeper breakdown.
ASTER’s token distribution is highly concentrated: 96% of supply is held by six addresses, a degree of centralization that enables outsized market impact from a few actors. The token’s role as collateral on its native exchange, combined with up to 300x leverage available on Aster DEX, magnifies liquidation cascades; leveraged positions can rapidly transform isolated sales into platform-wide volatility.
Structural risks and amplification mechanisms for ASTER
Community confusion around token unlock schedules has been a recurring stress point, notably after a $360 million unlock event on 17 de oct. de 2025. The project team has communicated that tokenomics remain unchanged and stated there are no immediate plans to sell unlocked tokens, but the concentration and historical unlocks remain structural vulnerabilities.
Despite current pressure, the analysis identifies scenarios that could reverse the decline. Past whale accumulations—three wallets adding 31.26 million ASTER (about $61.64 million) in one episode—and high-profile purchases, including a 2 million-token acquisition that previously triggered 20–28% gains, demonstrate that concentrated buying can propel rapid rebounds.
The Aster DEX platform offers product-level supports for demand: “Machi Mode” (which rewards liquidations), MEV-resistant execution, and multi-chain access, and at times has matched or exceeded competitors in trading volume.
More optimistic, but highly conditional, price trajectories in the same assessment project $2.93 by the end of 2025, $7.28 by 2030 and $1.564 by 2040; each path requires sustained adoption, verifiable reductions in token concentration and consistently higher organic trading volume.
ASTER is currently dominated by downside risk driven by concentrated supply and aggressive whale selling, but a technical and sentiment-driven rebound remains possible if buy-side support materializes and token concentration is addressed.
