On january Aptos (APT) dropped to about $1.88, sliding roughly 2.6% as the broader crypto market lost ground. The market-wide pullback — total crypto capitalization fell to $3.24 trillion — amplified pressure on altcoins and left APT notably weaker than peers.
Price action combined macro weakness with token-specific factors. APT declined to $1.88 after breaking below a $1.94 pivot and a key Fibonacci support at $2.15, with the 14-day RSI at an oversold 27.66, indicating strong selling momentum. Primary support around $1.87 held on some feeds, while immediate resistance clustered near $1.95. These technicals signal a pronounced downtrend and limited room for near-term upside.
A concrete supply overhang is scheduled for jan 11: an unlock of 11.31 millones APT (about $21.94 million), representing roughly 0.70% of circulating supply. That unlock, together with recurring monthly vesting and the fact that 32.5% of total supply remains locked until 2028, creates a recurring source of potential sell-side liquidity that traders will watch closely.
The move matters because APT faces both systemic headwinds and a specific supply event that could add sell pressure in the near term.
Sentiment, regulation and forecasts
Market sentiment had tilted to “extreme fear” on several technical indicators, which compounded selling across altcoins. Regulatory shifts also weighed on risk appetite: developments in Hong Kong, delays to parts of the EU’s MiCA framework noted in Poland, and index-level decisions under consideration by MSCI all added to caution among institutional and retail participants. Altcoins such as APT typically show greater sensitivity to these shifts in confidence.
Analysts and market models diverged on short-term trajectories. Some scenarios project deeper weakness — near $1.51 by jan 11 or as low as $1.24 by jan 17 if selling from the unlock accelerates. Others point to a short-covering bounce from oversold readings, with upside targets clustered between $1.95 and $2.30 should demand re-emerge. These opposing paths underline the balance between mechanical sell pressure from vesting and episodic buying from speculative or institutional flows.
For traders and holders the key operational risk remains liquidity: token unlocks increase available supply and can trigger stop runs in thin markets, while oversold technicals can deliver sharp but short-lived rebounds. Leverage would amplify both outcomes and raise liquidation risk for more exposed participants.
Investors are now turning attention to the january 11 token unlock as the immediate test of whether selling pressure will persist or whether oversold conditions can draw buying. That event, coupled with evolving regulatory signals, will likely determine APT’s direction over the coming weeks and serve as the primary catalyst for re-assessing risk exposure.
