Aptos’ native token APT fell as part of a wider crypto retreat in late December 2025, reversing a short-lived outperformance earlier in the week. The move underlines APT’s sensitivity to macroeconomic shifts and market-wide flows as well as to token-specific supply dynamics.
Between 23 and 24, APT declined in the range of 1%–2.8%, mirroring a broader slide in major crypto benchmarks; the CoinDesk 20 index fell roughly 0.6%–2.8% over the same days.
Two macro forces amplified the pullback. First, a risk-off tone followed U.S. inflation data releases and a Producer Price Index reading that showed a 0.3% month-over-month increase, which reduced appetite for risk assets.
Second, Bitcoin’s drop of 2.6% to $100.463 and its breach of the 55-day moving average represented a technical setback that often triggers altcoin selling; this price action coincided with a $27.000 million options expiry on Deribit, an event that can raise volatility and force short-term repositioning. Together, these factors encouraged capital to rotate toward larger, more liquid tokens, weighing on mid-cap assets such as APT.
Aptos-specific factors
Token supply mechanics remain a persistent headwind. Aptos schedules recurring monthly token unlocks, a mechanism that increases circulating supply and can add selling pressure; token unlocks are scheduled distributions of previously locked tokens into circulation. Approximately 32.5% of Aptos’s total supply remains locked through 2028, while a monthly release of about 11.3 million APT equated to roughly $19.4 million at a mid-week price of $1.72.
Historical events illustrate the effect: an 11.31 million APT unlock on 12 de may. de 2025 was followed by price moves that exceeded a 14% drop in some periods, indicating that unlocks can amplify downside in weak markets.
Offsetting those supply concerns are episodic institutional developments. A Bitwise ETF filing correlated with a roughly 10% surge in APT at one point, and the launch of an institutional staking service by BitGo was cited as a catalyst for improved institutional access and potential longer-term demand.
Near-term price projections place APT between $1.24 and $1.61 over the next 4–8 weeks, reflecting a scenario of continued volatility driven by token unlocks and macro data. Sentiment indicators have skewed bearish, with market fear metrics often dipping into “Extreme Fear,” which typically constrains rally potential until risk appetite recovers. For APT to regain sustained upside, the market likely needs a durable recovery in broader crypto markets and clearer adoption signals for Aptos’s technical upgrades.
APT’s recent weakness illustrates the confluence of macro-driven risk aversion and predictable supply pressure from monthly unlocks.
