Over the past few years, February has been one of the most successful months for digital gold. CoinDesk analyst Omkar Godboul draws attention to this.
On the other hand, he notes, the pressure of bears is now much stronger than in previous years. The BTC price in the coming days risks failing an important level of support at the 200-week moving average (MA) passing through the $ 3,298 mark. In this case, the next target will be $ 3,100.
During January of this year, the price of the first cryptocurrency slipped by about 7%. Currently, BTC is trading at Bitstamp in the region of $ 3,400.
Below in the table you can see that in the past four years, January was an unsuccessful month for Bitcoin:
Nevertheless, from 2015, every February, the bulls won positions – the price was restored by 16.25%, 18.11%, 23.57% and 1.6%. However, despite these positive statistics, the chances that Bitcoin will repeat the dynamics of previous years this February are small.
Consider the current market situation on different timeframes.
Monthly Schedule
MA with periods 5 and 10 are directed "to the south". For the first time since 2015, bitcoin is trading significantly below these moving averages, and the values of the relative strength index (RSI) fall into the oversold zone.
Thus, most likely, in February the main trend will remain bearish and the price is unlikely to be dumbfounded by bitcoin skeptics.
Three day schedule
In December, the price of BTC briefly jumped to the level of $ 4,000, and this happened against the background of bullish divergence on the RSI. However, the price subsequently did not continue the upward movement. Moreover, the other day Bitcoin rolled back to a six-week low.
The inability of the asset to grow against the background of bullish divergence signals a clear predominance of bearish sentiment in the market.
Weekly schedule
The price is under 10-week MA and may soon fall to the December lows at $ 3,100. After this, the next pillar is likely to be the psychological level of $ 3000.
The “heavy” MA with a period of 200 can hold back the onslaught of bears.
Note that the current bear market has already become the longest in the history of Bitcoin:
#BTC / USD APAC
Fractal 2014/15 bear market and drawdown comparison of 86.8% with #Bitcoin 's current bear market of 83.53% @Bitstamp
An extra ~ 3% drop could see prices fall to $ 2.5k
Tomorrow officially for $ BTC on a Weekly TF pic.twitter.com/uY8q9Z6sCG
– CoinDesk Markets (@CoinDeskMarkets) January 31, 2019 p.
Recall the other day Omkar Godboul admitted that the price of Bitcoin may fall to the lows of September 2017 in the region of $ 2,970 .
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