Large Ethereum holders bought approximately $2 billion worth of ETH, reducing the available supply and creating conditions that could support a sharp rally.
For several days, large addresses accumulated approximately 1.3 million ETH, including an extraordinary inflow of 818,000 ETH in a single day, what is the largest daily purchase since 2018. In nominal terms, this movement equates to nearly $2 billion in just five days.
At the same time, more than 220,000 ETH left centralized exchanges, marking the largest net outflow since October of last year. This drain directly reduced the amount of coins available for immediate sale, an indicator typically associated with decreasing supply pressure.
In parallel, staking reached new highs. Approximately 30% of the total supply, or about 35 million ETH, remains locked in validation contracts.
Why can a 10% rebound be expected?
However, the picture is not straightforward. ETH continues to trade below a key technical zone between $2,010 and $2,140, identified by analysts as the decisive range for confirming a sustained rebound. As long as this range acts as resistance, the concentrated sell orders between $1,980 and $2,020, along with the high proportion of losing holders, could limit gains.
The derivatives market adds another layer of complexity. There are currently around $3.06 billion in short positions compared to $755 million in long positions, an asymmetry that, on the one hand, opens the door to a potential short squeeze if the price breaks through resistance, but, on the other hand, reflects a persistent bearish sentiment.
Furthermore, high leverage increases the fragility of the balance. Recent reports indicated a concentrated $115 million long position with 15x leverage, which would be liquidated near $1,318. Adverse movements could trigger forced selling, magnifying downside volatility.
Technically, a break below $1,890 would invalidate the bullish divergence observed on short timeframes and reopen the path to the $1,740–$1,580 zone, reshaping the market’s bias.
In short, the market faces a clear dilemma: supply has compressed significantly, strengthening the case for an accelerated technical rebound; however, structural selling pressure, cost basis concentration, and dominant leverage create a plausible scenario of failure.
