Solana (SOL) plummeted approximately 38% over the past month, reaching a two-year low near $70. However, market data suggests it may rebound to $100.
Solana (SOL) fell to a two-year low, reaching $70, despite market signals indicating that its price could soon reach $100. The RSI dropped below 30, a classic oversold condition that in previous cycles has preceded rallies that fueled price growth. Simultaneously, the MVRV metric declined to a nearly two-and-a-half-year low, indicating that the market price is well below the cost of the tokens in circulation.
This disconnect is also reflected in the distribution of profits and losses. Only 21.9% of addresses are holding profitable positions, while more than 78% are experiencing unrealized losses. Historically, this type of structure tends to reduce immediate selling pressure, as it diminishes the incentive to take short-term profits.
From a technical perspective, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level has acted as recurring support in bear markets, while the $100–$105 zone is consolidating as the main resistance area. A recovery to levels near $96 would be an initial sign of improved buying confidence.
Could Solana rebound above $100?
Despite these oversold signs, headwinds remain significant. Recent capital flows showed net outflows, with a negative Chaikin Money Flow and a Fear & Greed Index of 5, reflecting extreme fear among market participants. This environment typically favors technical rebounds but also increases volatility.
The number of validators has dropped dramatically, from around 5,000 to approximately 800, a contraction attributed to increased hardware requirements and less attractive rewards following the token’s decline. This adjustment reignites concerns about decentralization and operational resilience.
Tactically, price action around $96 and, especially, in the $100–$105 range will be crucial. A breakout and consolidation above that zone would lend credence to a rebound toward higher levels; otherwise, rallies could remain selling opportunities in a still fragile market.
For traders and fund managers, the scenario calls for caution. While the recent influx of liquidity into USDT improves the likelihood of a rebound, the network’s structural weakness and the magnitude of unrealized losses suggest that any recovery could be uneven and short-lived, unless there is a sustained replenishment of validators and clear signs of long-term accumulation.
