Zcash (ZEC) experienced a sharp sell-off this week after breaking the $300 support level. Analysis suggests a price drop to $100 is possible in the medium term. The token’s liquidity is plummeting, interest in derivatives has fallen, and whales are renewing their selling pressure.
Between late January and early February, Zcash (ZEC) experienced a decline of nearly 35%, breaking through levels that had acted as support for several months. Intraday selling exacerbated the drop and pushed the token below the $300 mark, a technical reference point that had held since October 2025.
At the same time, liquidity indicators began to reflect the bearish bias. Trading volume contracted significantly, reflecting reduced operational interest, while open interest in derivatives plummeted from the highs recorded in December. This combination suggested a withdrawal of speculative capital and a decreased market willingness to support prices through leveraged positions.
Another key factor was the behavior of exchange balances. In just one week, the number of tokens deposited increased sharply, a pattern often interpreted as preparation for selling. In contexts of bearish pressure, this type of movement reinforces the perception that supply far exceeds available demand.
Is it possible that Zcash will drop to $100?
From a technical analysis perspective, the outlook offered no relief. Classic bearish structures were identified on the daily and weekly charts, including a confirmed head and shoulders pattern and a breakout from formations that historically act as reversal signals. Momentum indicators corroborated this reading, showing an acceleration of selling pressure and the loss of relevant support levels in volume metrics.
On-chain metrics reinforced this narrative. During the same period, holdings by large players decreased significantly, and the number of high-balance wallets tended to decline. For many analysts, these movements did not reflect strategic accumulation, but rather exposure reductions by major investors.
Based on Fibonacci extensions and price channel projections, technical models began to point to a significantly lower target zone. That range, located around $100–$103, emerged as a projection consistent with the magnitude of the observed breakout and the slope of the developing downward channel.
In this context, the implications for market participants were concrete. Weaker liquidity could amplify further declines, the increased supply on exchanges suggested a continuation of the selling bias, and the contraction of the derivatives market left fewer defensive tools against abrupt movements.
