The XRP price has started showing early signs of stabilization after a sharp sell-off over the past 24 hours, according to analyst Ananda Banerjee. After breaking down from its long-term falling channel and briefly slipping toward $1.11, the token rebounded toward the $1.30 area, seeking to reclaim critical technical support levels recently lost during the crash.
This partial recovery occurs while the coin trades below its realized price of $1.47, a level representing the average acquisition cost of all circulating coins today. Although this bounce looks strong, the XRP price faces a significant psychological resistance due to the selling pressure that persists among long-term holders currently operating at a loss in the market.
On-chain indicators suggest a prolonged phase of financial stress for holders
On the other hand, historical data indicates that structural breakdowns of this type usually precede long consolidation periods instead of immediate upside reversals. The XRP price is currently in a high-risk zone, where market sentiment remains quite fragile after the loss of the falling channel that guided the price action since the middle of last year.
During the recent crash, the gap relative to the realized price reached 25%, a figure that, while significant, is lower than the 46% recorded in the 2022 cycle. This difference suggests that while stress is building, the XRP price might not have reached its final capitulation yet, leaving room for more volatility in the market of the most important digital assets operating nowadays.
Likewise, the NUPL indicator for long-term holders sits at -0.19, confirming that a large part of investors are experiencing unrealized losses right now. For the XRP price to start a genuine recovery phase, this metric should deepen toward levels of -0.31, marking a complete reset of the positions of investors who have held the asset for several years.
Could the $0.93 support level prevent a further drop for the digital asset?
Nevertheless, spent coin activity has increased by 150%, indicating that previously inactive tokens are moving towards exchange platforms. This increase in distribution suggests that pressure on the XRP price remains high, hindering any attempt at a sustained bounce while market participants continue to relocate their capital for fear of further drops in the cryptographic sector.
In this way, the $0.93 level emerges as the ultimate test for the asset’s technical structure in the coming weeks of financial trading. If the XRP price fails to defend this support zone, the next bearish target would be near $0.52, an area that served as a base during the previous cycle, significantly affecting the confidence of retail investors across the globe.
Furthermore, to restore market confidence, it is imperative that the asset reclaims the $1.47 level and consolidates above $1.69. Meanwhile, the XRP price will continue to face constant supply, as technical bounces are used by traders to liquidate positions at key resistance levels, keeping the bears in control of the main mid-term price trend.
Therefore, the current situation calls for extreme caution despite the bounce observed toward the $1.30 zone during this trading session. The XRP price must show a decrease in the movement of old coins and a stabilization of the NUPL to confirm that the accumulation phase has truly begun, thus avoiding new liquidity traps for the most optimistic buyers in the industry.
However, history warns that these “line hugging” periods of the realized price can last for years before an explosive rally starts. The XRP price is in a critical testing phase where patience will be the determining factor for investors seeking to capitalize on the next bullish cycle of the criptocurrency once the ecosystem manages to absorb the current selling pressure.
