Solana staking surged 150%, and potential scenarios place the token at $65, even though its price dropped more than 8% in the last 24 hours. However, on-chain data suggests a positive outlook for price recovery.
Solana staking reached record levels, with over 425.7 million SOL staked, representing a participation rate of between 60% and 70% of the circulating supply. This level of staking significantly reduces the immediate liquid supply, putting pressure on the token.
Furthermore, approximately 14% of the staked SOL, equivalent to about 60.5 million tokens, is liquid staking, indicating that a significant portion of the capital remains active within DeFi, rather than being transferred directly to exchanges for sale.
In parallel, the supply of SOL on exchanges fell to a two-year low, a signal that typically indicates less inventory available for quick sales. Adding to this was institutional demand, as Solana-linked ETFs held the equivalent of approximately 0.76% of the circulating supply, with over $513 million in assets, absorbing a portion of the coins available in the market.
Despite this constructive backdrop, certain risks remain, as security incidents affecting Step Finance’s treasury were reported, with estimated losses of around $30 million and a separate loss of nearly $40 million. These incidents introduced localized selling pressure and some reputational risk.
Possible scenarios for Solana’s recovery
On the technical front, one analyst proposed a bearish scenario with a possible drop to $65, although this interpretation appeared to be an isolated voice, in contrast to a market context in which SOL had been trading clearly above that level, with recent ranges mentioned between $95 and $145.
In this regard, several narratives linking a single metric of staking withdrawals to a $65 target tended to conflate different dynamics. The reference to that price level stemmed from specific technical comments and, in some cases, comparisons with other assets, rather than a consensus projection based on a concrete event of mass withdrawals.
On the fundamentals side, network improvements and adoption signs were also highlighted. Reports mentioned the Alpenglow upgrade, aimed at reducing completion times, and the Firedancer validator client, which demonstrated high performance in test environments. This was complemented by solid on-chain metrics in January 2026, with millions of active addresses and tens of millions of daily transactions, as well as significant stablecoin liquidity, with a supply exceeding $17.48 billion in 2025.
Overall, the available metrics pointed more to resilience than to a flood of sellable supply. To assess short-term price risk, the market needs to consider staking levels, exchange supply, and flows into ETFs in an integrated manner. While security incidents and concentrated technical selling remain factors of occasional volatility, the suite of on-chain indicators did not support a systemic 150% increase in staking withdrawals or an inevitable price drop towards $65.
