On Tuesday, Bitcoin maintained sideways price action near $76,000, coinciding with Matt Hougan’s recent remarks regarding the 2025 crypto winter. The Bitwise executive stated that this bearish phase is closer to ending than many market participants currently believe. Meanwhile, gold attempted to strongly reclaim the key psychological milestone of $5,000 per ounce.
Despite the $80,000 resistance appearing out of reach in the short term, precious metals are showing a dynamic recovery trend. According to TradingView data, XAU/USD bounced to $4,971, recovering a significant portion of the losses sustained during previous trading sessions. This divergence between digital and physical assets keeps financial analysts in a state of constant, watchful observation.
The asset rebirth amid widespread seller exhaustion
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, argued that the current downtrend actually began in January of last year. According to his analysis, spot exchange-traded funds effectively masked market weakness during much of the previous period. This perception of false optimism prevented many from noticing the depth of the structural pullback the tech sector was experiencing.
Furthermore, the executive compared the current emotional state of investors to that of past winters, citing feelings of desperation and extreme apathy. However, Hougan emphasized that nothing fundamental has changed in the underlying technology, suggesting that a vigorous rebound could occur sooner rather than later. For the expert, seller exhaustion is the definitive signal that the bearish cycle is maturing.
On the other hand, the “digital gold” narrative is gaining relevance again while Bitcoin seeks to define its next major directional move. Some traders, such as Jelle, suggest that both assets typically take turns leading the market, which would position cryptocurrencies for an imminent rally. This theory is based on the historical rotation of capital between traditional and alternative stores of value.
Could Bitcoin break through the $80,000 barrier anytime soon?
However, not all analysts share this optimism, noting that the blockchain asset has failed to reach new highs relative to gold’s performance. Analyst Northstar warned that the digital asset could lose a significant portion of its value in gold terms if the rotation toward commodities persists. This lack of strength against the yellow metal represents a technical challenge for the bulls in 2026.
Additionally, the U.S. equities environment remains highly sensitive to corporate earnings reports, affecting overall investor risk appetite. PayPal’s sharp decline, losing nearly twenty percent of its value, sent shockwaves through the fintech sector, indirectly impacting digital assets. This stock market instability makes it difficult for Bitcoin to consolidate firm support above current price levels.
It is also notable that the silver crash, which fell near $71, has begun to reverse with significant strength recently. This rebound in industrial and precious metals could be absorbing the liquidity that once flowed toward the digital asset ecosystem. Competition for institutional capital has become more fierce in this complex and evolving global macroeconomic scenario.
Market implications suggest that investors should prepare for persistent volatility before a definitive structural recovery takes place. If Hougan’s thesis is validated, the end of the current apathy cycle will allow Bitcoin to resume its upward trajectory toward new records. Nonetheless, confirmation of this scenario will depend on the stabilization of capital flows into spot ETFs.
Looking ahead, the arrival of the “crypto spring” seems to depend on regulatory clarity and the fatigue of short positions. It is expected that reduced inflationary pressures will provide the necessary momentum to break technical resistances that currently limit the sector’s growth. The market awaits a clear signal marking the beginning of a new era of financial expansion and adoption.
