The digital asset XRP is currently trading below the average purchase price of the past year, placing numerous investors in a loss position and raising the risk of a severe correction. According to data from CryptoQuant, the XRP price experienced its most aggressive weekly selloff since October 2025, reflecting a scenario of significant technical weakness.
Currently, the price is hovering around $1.60, having retreated more than 20% over the last week, thus sitting just above its aggregated realized price of $1.48. If the market breaks this critical support level, the majority of holders would officially be underwater, a configuration that matches the 2022 bearish phase, when the asset suffered a 50% crash.
Furthermore, the whale flow over the last 90 days remains in negative territory, indicating that large holders are distributing their assets instead of accumulating more tokens. Since the supply is increasing while demand falters, any rebound attempt could be stifled by constant selling pressure, complicating the recovery of investor confidence in the short term.
What impact do stablecoin outflows have on market liquidity?
On the other hand, stablecoin flows into exchanges showed a negative trend since late 2025, reaching monthly net outflows of approximately $9.6 billion. Although these figures moderated in January, the fact that negative outflows from platforms persist drastically reduces the buying pressure needed to boost the value of the asset soon.
Since there are fewer immediate liquidity reserves, it becomes much harder for the asset to overcome its realized price resistance and maintain a sustainable bullish trend. Thus, the lack of fresh capital on exchanges becomes a bearish catalyst, limiting the possibilities of a positive breakout and leaving the way clear for sellers to dominate the price action.
The chart structure reveals that if the exponential support at $1.43 gives way, the asset could seek the $1 zone in March, emulating the historical capitulation seen years ago. However, a relative strength index near 38 suggests that, if this level holds, the market could stabilize before attempting a more solid recovery in the second quarter.
Ultimately, the near future of the project will depend on the buyers’ ability to defend the range between $1.43 and $1.48 against the current institutional distribution. Therefore, investors must closely monitor the cryptocurrency and volume indicators, as the loss of key moving averages would invalidate any immediate recovery scenario for this current financial cycle.
