Bitcoin faces a complex outlook after closing its weekly candle below the 100-week moving average, suggesting that the Bitcoin recovery to $100,000 could be delayed for several months. According to market analysts, this technical move, occurring after the drop below $75,000, could mark the beginning of a prolonged bearish phase.
During the last weekend, the asset closed at $76,931, losing a vital macro support level that had not been breached since late 2023. Analyst Brett highlights that, historically, when the price sits below this indicator, the market enters accumulation periods that have lasted between 182 and 532 days in previous cycles.
This structural situation, similar to that observed after the FTX collapse in 2022, implies that the Bitcoin recovery to $100,000 will not be immediate, as it requires healing investor sentiment. By observing past behavior, it is evident that these ruptures foster very extensive lateral consolidation ranges, preventing rapid rebounds toward new historical price highs.
Does the $85,000 resistance represent an insurmountable obstacle for the bulls?
On the other hand, analyst Sherlock warns about the increase in USDT dominance, which closed above 7.2%, signaling bearish conditions of high statistical relevance. Furthermore, there is a spot trading volume exceeding $120 billion trapped between $85,000 and $95,000, creating a massive and complex resistance zone for the current market trend.
Since many investors purchased the cryptocurrency at higher levels, any attempt to rise toward $85,000 will face constant selling pressure from break-even liquidations. Thus, the realized price of short-term holders, located at $91,500, will act as a psychological and technical ceiling that is difficult to bypass in the near future.
The current market structure shows worrying fractals that bear a close resemblance to the deep correction suffered during 2022, elevating the risk of further declines soon. If this trend persists, the price could seek liquidity in the $40,000 demand zone, indefinitely postponing the return to the path of the expected bullish trend.
Despite the technical pessimism, the future outlook will depend on the asset’s ability to decisively reclaim the 100-week moving average in upcoming closes. Meanwhile, investors must prepare for persistent volatility and an uncertain scenario, where time will be the determining factor for the stability of the digital financial ecosystem.
