According to market data, Cardano (ADA) is nearing a potential 90% breakout, despite approaching a month that has historically been weak for the crypto world. The thesis is based on a multi-month descending wedge pattern, bullish momentum indicators, and concentrated whale accumulation, with February 2026 emerging as the decisive window.
Since October 2025, the price of Cardano (ADA) has compressed in what appears to be a 90% retracement level, amidst a volatile crypto market and approaching a historically weak month. While doubts remain about whether it will actually break through the 90% level, this level represents the peak of institutional momentum for the coin.
Market analysts noted a bullish RSI divergence between November 21, 2025, and January 25, 2026: while ADA printed a lower low, the RSI formed a higher low, signaling a decrease in selling pressure.
Within Cardano’s price consolidation, a three-impulse fractal has also been identified, adding another constructive element to the technical analysis. Another key factor in Cardano’s market surge is the accumulation of over 454 million ADA among large holders with between 100,000 and 100 million ADA.
Their combined holdings increased from 66.3% to 67.53% of the circulating supply (approximately 24.33 billion ADA), a clear sign of strong conviction among large holders.
The momentum in the Cardano market and ADA holders
At the same time, leverage in the perpetual bond market tilted heavily toward short positions, with approximately $166.7 million in short positions compared to $89 million in long positions in the ADA market.
Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson amplified the interest, stating that February will be a pivotal month. Analysts quoted in market reports have linked this comment to potential announcements, partnerships, or network progress that could act as catalysts during February.
The fundamentals cited alongside the technicals include significant infrastructure elements planned for 2026: the Leios scalability solution and Midnight, a privacy-focused Layer-2. These projects are positioned to enhance performance and privacy on Cardano and could attract institutional or developer attention, thereby improving sentiment.
Immediate resistance lies in the $0.36–$0.40 range, and analysts emphasized the need for a sustained two-day close above approximately $0.40 to maintain an upward trajectory. Conversely, a two-day close below $0.329 would weaken the wedge pattern and invalidate the current bullish case, aligning ADA with its historically weak median returns of February.
Investors will be watching February 2026 for confirmation or rejection of this setup. A sustained break above the $0.543 confirmation zone would likely trigger mechanical short covering and test higher targets.
