Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin revealed that he earned a profit of 70,000 dollars over the past year using the Polymarket platform, based on a strategy called “anti-insanity mode.” During an interview in Chiang Mai, the developer explained that his approach consisted of identifying irrational trends to systematically position himself against highly improbable events that the public perceived as possible due to pure sensationalism.
This financial result stems from an initial capital of $440,000, representing a return of approximately 16% by betting against events such as Donald Trump receiving the Nobel Peace Prize. However, Buterin took the opportunity to express his concern about the direction of crypto prediction markets, arguing that the industry risks transforming into a purely speculative ecosystem lacking real social applications.
On the other hand, the programmer highlighted that transaction volume on these platforms has experienced explosive growth reaching nearly 6 billion dollars per week in the last year. Likewise, he warned that reliance on centralized oracles or token voting systems presents critical vulnerabilities, allowing actors with large capital to potentially manipulate the final outcomes of bets.
Technical challenges and the dilemma of digital centralization
Despite significant advances in network scalability, Buterin emphasized that technological progress does not always translate into improved utility for the end-user of the ecosystem. Thus, the Ethereum leader stressed that if the sector fails to develop applications with social meaning, blockchain technology could be relegated to being simply a digital casino dominated by financial conjecture and speculation.
In this context, failures experienced in data infrastructure following the recent Fusaka upgrade were mentioned, which caused an increase in the rate of missed blocks when information volume is high. Therefore, the strategic priority has shifted toward strengthening Layer 2 networks and resistance to quantum computing to ensure long-term asset security and decentralization.
How will oracle volatility affect investor confidence?
The danger posed by centralized artificial intelligence was also analyzed, positioning cryptocurrencies as an essential defense against digital totalitarianism and a tool to preserve freedom in today’s technological world. However, Buterin criticized Polymarket’s focus on short-term bets, suggesting that such activities do not contribute significant value to the global governance structure or social well-being.
Finally, the expert advocated for the implementation of long-term incentive mechanisms, citing models where prediction markets determine governance methods instead of simple results from sports or political events. It is expected that through the development of decentralized social networks and smarter DAOs, the ecosystem will manage to move away from speculation to consolidate an infrastructure that truly transforms human interaction in the digital environment.
