Amid growing rumors of an imminent foreign exchange intervention by Japanese authorities, the Bitcoin price trending downward could face a sharp 30% retreat. This phenomenon, which has historically coincided with massive dollar sales to strengthen the yen, suggests that the digital asset would fall toward the 65,000 to 70,000 dollar range.
The pattern, identified by analysts such as Mikybull Crypto, is based on the unwinding of “yen carry trades,” which often inject volatility into risk markets. Despite the grim outlook, historical data reveals that after these shakeouts, the price usually leads a recovery of over 100%, establishing a solid base for future rallies once the market stabilizes.
Likewise, recent reports indicate that the New York Fed has conducted “rate checks” on the USD/JPY pair, a common prelude to coordinated actions between the US and Japan. This situation, which keeps forex traders on alert, has weakened the stability of digital assets in the short term due to fears of a sudden liquidity contraction across global markets.
On-chain indicators suggest that the market bottom has not yet been consolidated
On the other hand, metrics from the Alphractal platform indicate that Bitcoin has not yet reached a full capitulation phase, meaning the “true bottom” might still be pending. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator remains above zero, suggesting that most holders still sit on paper gains despite the recent drawdown experienced by the asset.
In past cycles, durable bottoms only formed when NUPL turned negative, indicating that selling pressure had been completely exhausted among investors. Currently, the supply in profit stands at 62%, its lowest level since September 2024, reflecting a systematic cooling of the market against excessive speculation and high-leverage trading.
What role does the delta growth rate play in the current price vulnerability?
Since Bitcoin’s delta growth rate has fallen below zero, the price seems to be sliding toward the network’s aggregate cost basis. Thus, data analysis technology suggests that the market is moving from a speculative phase into one of accumulation, although it remains vulnerable to an additional drawdown before setting a durable bottom.
Finally, the current scenario poses a technical challenge for investors expecting an immediate recovery following last week’s losses. It is expected that if the yen fractal plays out as intended, the Bitcoin price trending downward will serve as a cleansing mechanism before a new bullish cycle, allowing the network to reset for more organic and long-lasting growth.
