Litecoin (LTC) has slipped roughly 46% from its 2025 high, yet on-chain metrics and derivatives flows have shown a notable surge in large-holder activity that complicates the bearish price narrative. Market observers say the split between price action and ‘smart money’ behavior suggests accumulation at lower levels even as retail interest wanes.
On-chain analytics recorded a spike in large transfers—transactions exceeding $100,000—reaching a five-week high as of January 2026, and wallets holding more than 100,000 LTC rose by more than 6% over the prior 90 days, according to Santiment.
These moves coincide with dips below the $75–$76 area, a pattern traders often interpret as opportunistic buying by sophisticated holders.
Technically, weekly indicators such as RSI and On-Balance Volume registered bullish divergences in recent analyses, a setup that analysts interpret as higher-confidence reversal potential. Market commentary pointed to resistance around $102, with intermediate breakout thresholds at $95 and $120–$150 for stronger moves.
Litecoin derivatives and scenario framing
Derivatives activity has amplified the picture. Litecoin’s open interest rose to 8.25 million LTC—its highest level since Oct. 10, 2025—reflecting increased leverage and speculative positioning, per FXStreet and market trackers. Coinglass metrics have likewise shown a positive Whale vs. Retail Delta since Q4 2024, indicating larger holders dominated flows as smaller traders pulled back.
Beyond flows, proponents highlighted Litecoin’s structural strengths—very low transaction fees (reported under $0.001) and optional privacy via MimbleWimble Extension Blocks—as enduring utilities that support longer-term demand, even if developer activity has drawn scrutiny in prior years.
Investors are now watching whether the on-chain accumulation and elevated open interest translate into price momentum in the coming weeks. Forecasts referenced in recent coverage project a range of scenarios: a near-term rebound to roughly $112–$136 in Q1 2026, with broader year-end targets that assume sustained bullish conditions and market breadth.
Continued monitoring of whale transfers, open interest levels and the $132.23 38.2% Fibonacci barrier will be central to assessing whether this divergence resolves into a durable recovery or a transient squeeze.
