Lighter’s native token LIT trades near $3.01 and faces a technical crossroads that could shave roughly 15% from its price if a bearish setup completes. Market structure and on-chain flows now present competing signals for traders and long-term holders.
The 4-hour chart is sketching a head-and-shoulders formation with the head near the $3.26 swing high and a neckline around $2.56. A decisive break below that neckline would activate the pattern and project an 11% drop from the neckline; from today’s $3.01 price this equates to a potential ~15% cooldown toward roughly $2.30, a level described in market commentary as a retest of the token’s ‘lost launch low.’
Price pressure is supported by flow indicators: the Chaikin Money Flow has rolled over and the Money Flow Index has registered a sharp decline, signaling softer capital inflows and weakening dip-buying interest. Derivatives positioning across cohorts also leans net short, adding fuel to a downside scenario if sellers press the edge.
Bull case: buybacks, whale accumulation and short-squeeze potential
The bullish counterweight is concrete. The protocol has begun the promised buyback program, channeling fees into LIT repurchases; on-chain records show the treasury actively acquiring tokens. Large investors have moved sizeable USDC to accumulate LIT, and short-term technicals on lower timeframes favor buyers — the 1-hour chart recently produced a 20/50 EMA golden cross while Bull Bear Power sits in positive territory. Trading volume and TVL have also risen, supporting the rally.
Should bulls secure a strong 4-hour close above $3.26, the head-and-shoulders would be invalidated and a short-squeeze could push LIT toward the listed upside targets. Conversely, failure to defend the $2.97–$2.77 band would increase the odds of a deeper retest near $2.30.
Investors will be watching the next 4-hour closes and on-chain buyback flows as the decisive variables. A clear break above $3.26 would shift market positioning toward squeeze dynamics, while a sustained breach below the $2.97–$2.56 area would likely accelerate downside toward the post-launch low territory and test whether whale accumulation and treasury repurchases can absorb renewed selling pressure.
