Hedera’s HBAR entered a clear bearish phase after a double-top pattern, leaving the token vulnerable to a short-term pullback. Technical studies and market sentiment point to an immediate downside target of $0.102 and growing downside risk if key supports fail.
Analysts flagged a classic double-top reversal, with the neckline break prompting a projected 5% drop to $0.102. HBAR was trading around $0.107 at the time of those reports, with immediate short-term support at $0.106. Further weakness could push the token toward $0.099 if selling intensifies.
Reversal conditions are also mapped out: reclaiming $0.109 would be the first sign the downtrend is losing momentum, and a sustained move to $0.113 would be required to invalidate the bearish thesis. Without those moves, analysts argued HBAR could struggle below $0.120, with a move above $0.125 needed to restore broader confidence.
The pattern has undermined HBAR’s linkage to Bitcoin, reducing the odds that a BTC rebound alone will reverse the altcoin’s decline. Traders now watch a narrow band of support and resistance that will determine whether the token stabilizes or extends the correction.
Decoupling from Bitcoin and market implications
Historically, HBAR tracked Bitcoin closely, with a reported correlation of 0.79. That relationship weakened markedly: on 1 de ene. de 2026 the correlation had fallen to 0.26, a two-month low, indicating HBAR is now responding more to its own technicals than to BTC flows.
Bitcoin itself was described as cautious at the turn of the year—hovering near $87,000—while some technical commentators warned of a possible test of lower supports around $82,784 if BTC fell below $85,000. Given the reduced correlation, a broad Bitcoin rebound could offer only limited relief for HBAR; conversely, fresh weakness in BTC would likely deepen selling pressure on the altcoin.
Investors are now turning attention to whether HBAR can reclaim $0.109 while monitoring Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory; a sustained BTC rebound could help sentiment but is unlikely to overturn HBAR’s short-term technical weaknesses on its own. For traders and risk managers, the immediate task is to map risk around the $0.106–$0.109 band and prepare for increased volatility if BTC tests lower supports.
