Zcash price has broken decisively below its 50-day exponential moving average, a technical support that had underpinned recent stability, signaling an elevated risk of further losses.
The price breach centers on the 50-day EMA, a trend indicator that smooths recent price action and often acts as dynamic support. Past closes below this moving average have led to rapid corrections, historically ranging from 8% to 30% within days, underscoring how similar breaches have amplified selling pressure in prior cycles, according to BeInCrypto.
The immediate technical projection points for Zcash toward $410 as the primary support; failure there would open a move to $371, which represents an additional cited decline, and deeper consolidation zones near $295 would come into view if losses intensify, per reporting compiled from market trackers.
Analysts flag a bear-flag pattern on shorter time frames that, if confirmed, could produce a far larger breakdown. Scenario analyses estimate a potential 50%–60% collapse in an extreme outcome, implying targets as low as $141 or $281, a tail-risk referenced by derivatives-focused commentators.
Market flows and Zcash positioning
Derivatives and on-chain flows reinforce the bearish bias. Perpetual futures data show dominant net short exposure among major traders and whale accounts, indicating that leveraged positions are skewed to benefit from further price drops, according to market derivatives reporting. On spot venues, Solana-based ZEC order books recorded a more than 47% one-day increase in exchange balances, a surge that classically precedes elevated selling pressure as coins migrate to custodial venues, per BeInCrypto’s spot-flow observations.
Momentum and money-flow metrics add to the downside narrative. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which measures buying and selling pressure using price and volume, has remained below zero for an extended stretch, signaling persistent outflows and scarce institutional-level buying interest, as noted by Whales Market.
Some market reports register a mild positive correlation between Zcash and Bitcoin at 0.48, suggesting increased sensitivity to broad market moves; others cite a recent one-week shift to a negative -0.18, indicating divergence in short windows. Both readings were reported across different data providers and imply a changing relationship with BTC that may complicate ZEC’s independent recovery.
The bearish thesis would be invalidated only if Zcash decisively reclaims the 50-day EMA and sustains a move above $470, a threshold that market technicians say would signal structural stabilization. Above that level, $549 is identified as the next resistance to test before bullish conviction could return.
Zcash faces asymmetric near-term risk after the EMA breakdown, with a clear short-term target at $410 and several deeper supports if selling persists.
