Hedera’s HBAR posted a technical bounce after hitting a local low, but key indicators show weakening capital inflows and a bearish structure that could limit the sustainability of the rebound.
The price of Hedera (HBAR) climbed approximately 11% following a recent low, sparking some optimism among traders. However, this uptick comes amid a broader bearish context in which HBAR’s momentum and demand indicators remain weak.
One of the main concerns comes from the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which tracks capital movement into and out of an asset. In HBAR’s case, the CMF continues to trend downward and sits near a descending trendline that has guided outflows for weeks. This suggests that despite the price bounce, larger capital is still leaving the token, and a break below the trendline would confirm a shift toward more pronounced outflows and weaken the rebound’s prospects.
Bounce may be short-lived amid broader downside pressure
Technically, HBAR remains trapped within a long-term descending channel, keeping the overall bias to the downside. The recent 11% bounce resembles a “dead cat bounce” — a short-term uptick within an overarching downtrend — rather than a convincing trend reversal.
Derivatives data show a notable short bias, with more traders positioned on the downside than the upside. While heavy short positioning can sometimes fuel a short squeeze if triggered by strong market movement (e.g., a rally in Bitcoin), the current imbalance alone is unlikely to spark a durable recovery without external catalysts.
Key price levels to monitor include the $0.10 area, which, if broken, would signal further breakdown and downside extension, and $0.13, which represents a resistance zone that could cap any continued rebound. The broader crypto market’s strength — particularly that of Bitcoin — is also likely to influence HBAR’s trajectory.
Overall, despite the short-term bounce, weakened capital inflows, a bearish technical setup and lack of sustained demand point to a risk skewed toward further declines, and the recent uptick in price may prove temporary unless stronger market support emerges.
