The market has largely priced in a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut, a factor now viewed as less market-moving than the Fed chair’s rhetoric, according to Nansen. That assessment, and a potential leadership shift in early 2026, underpin a bullish case for cryptocurrencies by shaping liquidity, dollar strength and risk appetite.
Nansen’s Principal Research Analyst Aurelie Barthere noted the rate cut is already “priced in,” a position reflected in futures markets that have adjusted probabilities accordingly. With the cut anticipated, traders are said to be parsing tone and forward guidance rather than the mechanical decision itself. A dovish delivery from the Fed chair would further loosen financial conditions, weaken the dollar and tend to reallocate capital toward high-beta assets such as crypto; a hawkish inflection would have the opposite effect and could trigger rapid retracements.
The interplay between Powell’s language and crypto flows is central to the short-term outlook, with market participants watching both the substance of statements and subtle cues that imply future policy paths. Bitcoin’s technical action—hovering around $91,000 and facing resistance near $94,000—illustrates how price now responds to narrative as much as to headline policy.
On-chain metrics cited by Nansen show rising “liveliness,” a measure of coin dormancy, which is being interpreted as renewed accumulation by longer-term holders. Bitfinex analysts describe the market as exhibiting “seller exhaustion,” a condition that narrows supply pressure and can precede stronger rallies when macro conditions turn favorable.
Market pricing, Fed rhetoric and Bitcoin dynamics
Beyond immediate speeches and committee votes, Nansen highlights a potential leadership transition at the Fed in early 2026 as a structural bullish factor for digital assets. A shift toward a more growth-friendly posture — mentioned as a hypothetical with figures like Kevin Hassett cited in commentary — could mean a sustained move toward looser financial conditions and greater institutional receptivity to digital innovation.
That combination would likely increase capital availability and reduce the opportunity cost of holding speculative instruments, creating a longer-duration tailwind for crypto markets.
Nansen’s view ties three threads—an already priced-in cut, the decisive role of Powell’s tone, and a possible 2026 policy tilt—into a coherent bullish scenario for crypto markets. The near-term price trajectory will depend on how the Fed communicates its intentions and on-chain indicators of holder behavior.
