Bitcoin has climbed 14.50% from its recent lows, but prominent analysts like CryptoBirb warn that this movement constitutes a Bitcoin bull trap. According to the view of these experts, the current rebound toward 93,000 dollars does not signal the start of a new positive cycle, but represents clear selling opportunities.
Technical data reveals solid arguments for caution, centered primarily on the appearance of a classic structure known as a “bear flag”. Analysts like Mister Crypto and Celeb Franzen highlight that this bearish continuation pattern usually resolves with drops, putting the 80,000 dollar support at risk. By calculating the height of the previous downtrend, a technical target for December is projected around 77,100 dollars. Therefore, this would imply an approximate 16% decline in price if the break of the critical 88,000 dollar level is confirmed.
This negative scenario is reinforced when analyzing the historical context, as the current market structure is an almost exact mirror of the 2021 cycle. Analyst Leshka identified a Bitcoin fractal showing a double-top formation followed by a sharp breakdown into support. Back then, a deceptive recovery trapped optimistic buyers before a drastic drop that cut the asset’s value in half. Thus, the current technical setup suggests that the market is repeating the same dangerous steps that preceded massive corrections in the past.
Could extreme market fear trigger a historic 50% crash?
The implications of validating this pattern would be severe for the asset’s valuation and investor psychology in the medium term. If history repeats itself, Leshka warns that the price could retreat to the 40,000 dollar region by early 2026. Furthermore, Alex Wacy highlights that rejection from the ascending trendline resistance typically results in drawdowns of up to 70% in market value. On the other hand, Google searches for “bear market” hit record levels last week, which has historically anticipated major sell-offs like those that occurred in May 2021 and June 2022.
To conclude, the current situation demands meticulous risk management given the possibility that the rally is a temporary illusion. AndrewBTC notes that Bitcoin could easily rally toward the 97,000 dollar zone, but warns that this would serve only to trap unsuspecting bulls. Thus, while the crowd believes the bull run is back, indicators suggest that the start of a prolonged bear market looms for cryptocurrencies.
