Standard Chartered maintains a bullish stance on Bitcoin and believes the recent accelerated sell-off is ending, opening the door to a rally toward the end of 2025. Through its Head of Digital Assets Research, Geoffrey Kendrick, the firm sets target levels of $135,000 in the short term and $200,000 by year-end, relying on signals that indicate selling exhaustion. The central thesis is that capitulation has concluded and that the market is preparing the ground for a sustained advance.
Kendrick identifies a repeated pattern of sharp declines and recoveries, placing the recent correction as the third of similar magnitude in recent years. The drop of about 30% from the early October peak ($126,000) is interpreted as part of that cyclical dynamic, and the brief dip below $100,000 in late October 2025 was described as a psychological and operational turning point. Geoffrey Kendrick went so far as to state that the sell-off “is likely ‘complete’”; that phrase sums up the thesis that the capitulation phase has ended.
MicroStrategy reached parity in its modified Net Asset Value (mNAV) of 1.0, an indicator that measures the value of its bitcoin holdings relative to the share price; such parity is often interpreted as a sign of extreme valuation adjustment. In addition, the support provided by the 50-week moving average, in place since 2023, is highlighted as a structural level that held the market during the correction.
Catalysts, positioning and projections for Standard Chartered
Standard Chartered argues that the combination of flows and regulatory progress underpins its projections. It cites cumulative net flows through ETFs that exceed $60 billion as evidence of sustained institutional demand. The firm adds increasing corporate adoption and the potential approval of U.S. legislation on stablecoins as factors that could normalize and expand the investor base.
In an unconventional point, the partial shutdown of the U.S. government is presented in the analysis as a catalyst that reinforces the narrative of Bitcoin as an alternative in periods of sovereign risk.
The price targets set by the institution are $135,000 for the near horizon and $200,000 by the close of 2025; the note also mentions the possibility of even higher levels toward 2028. These targets are presented as scenarios driven by institutional capital inflows and the completion of the selling period.
Standard Chartered interprets the recent correction as a point of capitulation that prepares the ground for a rally through year-end, supported by ETF flows and regulatory progress; however, the lofty projections require those catalysts to persist.
