Ethereum (ETH) staged a notable rally over the weekend, managing to break the $3,600 barrier. This bullish move is significant, as it places the asset’s price above its “active realized price,” a key metric tracked by on-chain analytics firm Glassnode. This indicator suggests that the profitability of Ethereum holders has been restored. In effect, the average ETH investor is no longer recording unrealized losses on their holdings.
The recent momentum has been considerable. Ether’s price climbed 20% from its four-month low of $3,050 (hit on November 4) to reach $3,650 this past Sunday. Market sources attribute this recovery to renewed macroeconomic optimism. Specifically, expectations about the possible end of the US government shutdown and promises of tariff dividends are mentioned. However, the most relevant technical data point is that the active realized price currently sits at $3,545. Therefore, maintaining stability above this level is crucial for bullish aspirations. If the price were to fall below it, it would put average holders back in a loss zone.
Furthermore, the fact that the average holder is back “in the black” provides substantial financial relief. This scenario tends to transform the overall market sentiment, shifting from “fear” to greater confidence. Historically, surpassing the active realized price reduces selling pressure. Investors who bought higher and were “underwater” (at a loss) no longer feel the urgency to sell to minimize damages. On the contrary, this milestone encourages long-term holding (holding) of the cryptocurrency. The closest precedent, which occurred in January 2024, is optimistic. When ETH reclaimed this same level after a brief dip, it sparked an impressive 89% rally, climbing from $2,165 to $4,100.
Is this the definitive signal for Ether’s takeoff toward new highs?
Nonetheless, despite the positive outlook, the path to $4,000 is not clear. On-chain data reveals a formidable resistance barrier. This “wall” is located in the immediate price range. According to an analysis of Ether’s cost basis distribution, there is a massive concentration of investors who acquired their coins in this zone. Specifically, it is estimated that 4.2 million ETH were purchased between $3,600 and $3,815. This situation suggests a selling risk. Many of these investors might choose to sell at their breakeven point to secure their capital, which could temporarily halt the bullish momentum seen recently.
Various technical analysts in the sector agree on the importance of the current levels. They emphasize that ETH needs to consolidate support above $3,700 to maintain the bullish advantage. The real challenge will be converting the dense $3,800-$3,900 zone from resistance into a new support floor. If the bulls achieve this feat, it would unlock the necessary liquidity to seek higher targets, such as $4,100. Meanwhile, institutional confidence appears to be growing. Last week, it was reported that a major institutional player accumulated an additional 110,288 ETH for its treasury. Investors are now closely watching whether the bulls can maintain control above the active realized price.
