XLM fell 2.2% to $0.2727 after a rejection at the $0.2815 resistance, a move that coincided with a sharp pickup in trading activity. Volume rose 62% to 42.6 million tokens, pointing to larger-scale selling involving both retail and institutional players. This matters because it blends sustained technical pressure with meaningful flows, a mix that can reset supports and entry points for managers and traders.
Technical indicators show a bearish bias. A “Death Cross” has been confirmed on the daily chart, when the short-term moving average falls below the long-term one, which typically precedes sustained control by sellers. XLM trades below its 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages, while the RSI sits between 45 and 50 with a hidden bearish divergence, signaling erosion in buying momentum.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which measures buying/selling pressure based on volume, registers +0.04 in the short term but -0.10 on larger timeframes; this reflects nascent buying versus a withdrawal of liquidity by large players.
Recent history reinforces the pattern: between Oct. 16 and 17, 2025 XLM fell 6.25% (from $0.32 to $0.30) with a volume peak of 89.11 million, establishing resistance levels around $0.31 and support at $0.30. The current dynamics appear more like institutional distribution than retail panic, according to observed volumes.
Stellar XLM’s leap and its market positioning
At the network level, Protocol 23 expanded Stellar’s capacity to 5,000 operations per second via parallel processing of smart contracts, an advance that could favor adoption by regulated institutions if they overcome regulatory hurdles and operational inertia.
The situation has practical effects for different actors: managers should monitor key technical levels and the quality of volume; traders can use confirmatory daily closes to validate entries; institutions evaluating integration will see the greater network capacity as a technical argument, albeit conditioned on regulatory compliance.
The next milestone is a confirmed daily close above $0.2815 with sustained volume; absent that, the technical structure favors an extension of selling pressure. According to the cited projections, medium-term scenarios remain wide, which reinforces the need for active risk management.
