The start of December brought strong turbulence for the Bitcoin price, which descended abruptly to the $85,000 zone due to a notable lack of liquidity in the market. This corrective move has raised alarms among bearish traders, leading popular trader Roman to declare that a return towards the $50,000 level is now an “inevitable” scenario.
Recent charts confirm the formation of a classic “Bart Simpson” pattern, which dragged the BTC/USD pair to lows of $85,616 on major platforms like Bitstamp. This decline provoked massive liquidations exceeding $600 million dollars in a 24-hour period, shaking out leveraged positions. On the other hand, veteran analysts like Peter Brandt warn that the previous recovery could have been a simple “dead cat bounce,” suggesting that real support could be found in the $40,000s. Furthermore, the technical loss of the 50-week exponential moving average worries experts, who do not see a solid bullish recovery until surpassing $99,800.
Will stablecoin liquidity be able to stop the imminent market drop?
The macroeconomic context adds a layer of complexity, as Japanese bond yields have risen to levels not seen since 2008, generating global uncertainty. Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX, points directly at the Bank of Japan, arguing that its hawkish stance has destabilized risk assets by strengthening the yen. However, markets maintain a cautious hope in the US Federal Reserve, where futures indicate an 87% probability of a rate cut this month, which will depend critically on the upcoming PCE inflation data.
Despite the prevailing pessimism, there are fundamental indicators suggesting that total capitulation might not occur immediately for cryptocurrencies. The “Coinbase Premium,” a key indicator of US institutional demand, has shown brief positive signs, behavior that historically precedes bullish trend reversals. Likewise, a crucial data point is that stablecoin reserves on Binance have reached all-time highs relative to BTC holdings. This implies that there is enormous buying power ready to deploy, known as “dry powder,” waiting for the right moment to re-enter the market.
Finally, the sector faces a decisive week where the interaction between monetary policy and technical levels will dictate the short-term course. While fear of a structural drop persists, the accumulation of liquidity suggests that big players are positioning themselves strategically. Investors must act with extreme caution, as volatility will continue to be the dominant norm while the market decides whether to validate current support or seek new annual lows.
