The ADA market shows signs of exhaustion in its bearish trend after a 12% monthly drop. According to analyst Ananda Banerjee, Cardano whale accumulation has gained significant momentum over the past week. In total, addresses holding between 100 million and 1 billion ADA added 100 million tokens to their balances. This move represents an approximate investment of 36 million dollars amidst weak price action today.
Technically, the daily chart of the cryptocurrency reveals a bullish divergence between the price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI). While the asset’s value marked lower lows, the RSI began printing higher lows consistently. This pattern suggests that sellers are losing strength, a structure that has historically preceded major rallies. In fact, a similar setup generated a 30% rally in just eight days during the previous cycle.
On the other hand, on-chain data confirms that the activity of spent coins has decreased considerably. Whales seem to be reacting to the reduction in selling pressure rather than chasing price strength. Therefore, the behavior of large holders suggests confidence in current market support levels. Likewise, the stabilization of technical momentum reinforces the thesis of a potential bullish reversal in the short term.
Critical resistance and support levels for the future of ADA
To validate this recovery attempt, the asset must overcome specific technical obstacles in the coming trading sessions. The first sign of real strength would be observed above $0.44, although the final confirmation lies at $0.47. Therefore, surpassing the $0.47 mark would open the way toward the psychological target of $0.50. However, general market sentiment remains cautious in the face of existing global volatility.
Moreover, the Spent Coins Age Band metric shows that the peak of sales occurred on December 16. Since then, Cardano whale accumulation has been the main driver behind the price defense. In this way, large investors are taking advantage of liquidity to position themselves before a potential trend change. However, any extreme weakness in the crypto market could delay the execution of this chart pattern.
What conditions would invalidate the current bullish scenario for Cardano?
Despite the optimism generated by institutional purchases, downside risk remains present if there is no buying volume. The $0.34 level is identified as the key invalidation support for the current reversal thesis. If ADA loses $0.34, selling pressure could return with force to the project’s ecosystem. It is also likely that whales will begin distributing their holdings if this fundamental support is broken.
In conclusion, Cardano is at a turning point where technical and fundamental data seem to align. Volatility is expected to increase as it approaches the $0.44 and $0.47 resistances soon. Likewise, the success of this move will depend on persistence in the purchases of large whale groups. Finally, the market is closely watching whether this accumulation cycle manages to drive the price toward the $0.55 range.
