Cardano (ADA) accumulates technical signals, historical support and institutional interest that, together, point to a price rebound. After a 26–30% drop and with the RSI around 30.85, the current scenario brings together conditions that favor a technical and confidence-driven recovery.
Technical indicators show selling exhaustion. The recent drop that pushed ADA to deeply oversold levels coincided with typical capitulation signals. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is an oscillator that measures the strength of price movements and in this case hovers around 30.85, indicating oversold conditions. The TD Sequential indicator, designed to detect exhaustion and potential trend reversals, printed a buy signal on the three-day framework; that type of reading often precedes reversals.
The bullish divergence of the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which refers to capital flow into or out of an asset, suggests that despite price lows, net capital has begun to enter. Meanwhile, the On-Balance Volume (OBV), which accumulates volume by price direction, has broken its downward trendline, indicating accumulated buying pressure against selling pressure.
Historical support and recovery precedents. ADA is testing relevant support zones around $0.45 and the $0.52–$0.57 range, levels that in previous cycles acted as inflection points. The asset’s recent history shows that it bounced strongly from similar supports, a precedent that reinforces technical conviction. The narrative also includes planned network improvements: Hydra, a layer-2 solution aimed at scaling TPS, and the Plomin fork, activated in the first quarter of 2025, which increases the ecosystem’s technological capacity; these updates add a fundamental argument to the adoption profile.
Catalysts for a Cardano price rebound
Accumulation by large holders and institutional interest. In November there was an accumulation of 348 million ADA by large participants, a move that denotes strategic positioning rather than emotional buying. The percentage of long positions over open interest reached 52%, which signals an increase in directional leverage among those expecting a recovery. Likewise, the growing expectation of a Cardano ETF has raised institutional interest; a market prediction places the approval probability near 90%, a factor that, if realized, could materially change demand dynamics.
The crossing of technical exhaustion signals, the defense of supports with rebound precedents and the accumulation by large players form a coherent argument in favor of a probable ADA recovery.
The materialization of the rebound will depend on confirmation of the technical signals and external events, in particular the evolution of a possible ETF approval and the effective implementation of improvements like Plomin in the first quarter of 2025.
