Standard Chartered initiated research coverage on Ethena on September 30, 2026, outlining an eightfold growth forecast note for its synthetic dollar asset over the next two years.
Standard Chartered has initiated research coverage of Ethena.
— Ethena (@ethena) September 30, 2026
They forecast potential USDe growth of ~8x in the next 2 years as the convergence of DeFi and TradFi accelerates.
Unclear why they are so bearish, but worth a read regardless: pic.twitter.com/JlzXqrqc07
Authored by Geoffrey Kendrick, global head of digital assets research at the bank, the report projects USDe circulation to reach $40 billion by year-end 2028, expanding from approximately $4.9 billion recorded in September 2026.
The research note sets a price target of $2.00 for Ethena governance token ENA by late 2028. Starting from roughly $0.25, the bank establishes intermediate milestone projections of $0.42 for 2026 and $1.10 by late 2027.
Kendrick builds the core thesis on Ethena positioning across three expanding sectors: cryptocurrency perpetual futures markets, tokenized real-world assets, and the ongoing growth of stablecoins within decentralized finance.
Stablecoin expansion and protocol buyback mechanics
Standard Chartered estimates the total stablecoin market will reach $2 trillion by 2028, supported by an accelerating migration from bank deposits toward digital currency instruments yielding market-rate returns.
Yield-bearing stablecoins currently represent about 5% of all circulating stablecoin capital. Ethena ranks as the second-largest issuer within this segment, positioned directly behind Sky in market presence and yield distribution.
The valuation model incorporates a program where ENA buybacks activate once supply reaches $7.5 billion. Under this design, protocol revenue generated from basis spreads and lending fees would fund open-market purchases of governance tokens.
Assuming a 6% gross annual percentage yield, the protocol take-rate would scale from 5% to 25% alongside supply expansion. At $40 billion in USDe, annual buybacks could absorb roughly 23% of circulating ENA supply.
The research team characterizes this buyback volume as unsustainable at existing valuation levels, arguing that market equilibrium would demand substantial token price appreciation, referencing historical precedents observed in decentralized exchange governance structures.
Synthetic collateral and institutional credit backing
Operating as a synthetic dollar, the USDe protocol on Ethereum avoids direct fiat deposits in commercial banking accounts, relying instead on delta-neutral derivatives positioning paired with cryptocurrency collateral assets.
To insulate yields against funding rate compression, Ethena has broadened its collateral base into institutional debt. That allocation included $310 million in collateralized loans serviced through a FalconX special purpose vehicle in July 2026.
In June 2026, the protocol approved a $250 million commitment to Securitize tokenized AAA-rated collateralized loan obligation fund, incorporating structured credit exposure with BNY Mellon serving as primary custodian.
Standard Chartered forecasts that tokenized real-world assets on public blockchains will grow from $40 billion to $2 trillion by 2028, providing the underlying liquidity necessary to support yield-bearing stablecoins at institutional scale.
Divergent growth targets and analytical risks
Institutional analysts continue to evaluate contrasting market drivers across major networks, where institutional cryptocurrency investment cases diverge between non-sovereign store-of-value assets and smart contract platforms supporting yield-generating financial instruments.
Following the report release, Ethena publicly questioned the conservative nature of the $40 billion target. While the bank projects an 8x expansion over two years, Ethena internal roadmap targets $100 billion in USDe circulation over a five-year horizon.
The research note outlines three key structural risks: slower institutional adoption of yield-bearing stablecoins, potential liquidity constraints in tokenized real-world assets, and margin pressure if higher protocol take-rates push capital toward competing yield sources.
Market participants will monitor USDe supply trajectories through late 2026 to evaluate whether protocol inflows reach the $7.5 billion threshold required to initiate buyback executions.
This article is for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice.
