Market analyst Jason Pizzino recently warned that the Bitcoin price in 2026 could find its true floor, extending the current correction cycle. According to his projection shared this Thursday, the market faces a long period of consolidation characterized by a constant and prolonged decrease in global trading volume.
Pizzino explains that the historical behavior of risk assets suggests that we could expect new lows during the next year before a full reversal. In his analysis, he highlights that Bitcoin would not reach its long-term bottom until October 2026, based on the 18-year real estate economic cycle theory. Likewise, he compares the current volume “grind” lower with the final period of 2022 and early 2023, suggesting that shock moves happen when the majority of investors are not watching the charts actively.
On the other hand, the expert sees little chance of a major trend change in the short term due to key technical resistances. Currently, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) acts as a stiff barrier, while trader risk appetite is nonexistent. This is clearly reflected in a balanced long/short ratio that indicates indecision in the market, leaving little room for an immediate and sustained bullish recovery in the coming months.
Can the decrease in selling pressure drive a momentary technical recovery?
On the other hand, analytics firm CryptoQuant offers a complementary perspective in its weekly report titled “The Calm Before The Vol,” noting a notable reduction in selling pressure. On-chain data reveals that the share of deposits from large players has dropped from 47% to 21%, indicating that whales are ceasing to transfer assets massively to exchanges to liquidate their positions. Furthermore, the average deposit size has shrunk drastically by 36%, going from 1.1 BTC to 0.7 BTC currently.
This decrease in selling activity by large entities could allow the price to rally towards 99,000 USD as a temporary relief. However, researchers warn that there are key resistances at 102,000 and 112,000 dollars that could brake any attempt at a significant bullish breakout. Thus, even if selling pressure cools, the lack of new retail capital flows acts as a formidable brake for leading cryptocurrencies.
The market seems trapped between a prolonged correction predicted by time cycles and a possible technical recovery driven by the scarcity of sellers. It is expected that the coming months will be decisive to confirm if the Bitcoin price in 2026 will effectively mark the definitive end of this bearish cycle or if we will see a surprise sooner. Investors will need to closely watch trading volumes, as a continued drop could be the necessary precursor for the next big move that restarts the bullish trend.
