A new analysis on the correlation between Bitcoin (BTC) and the global M2 money supply suggests a bullish scenario for the crypto asset. According to Jesse Myers, co-founder of Onramp Bitcoin, if recent history repeats, BTC could experience a six-fold increase. This projection is based on the Bitcoin price analysis 2026 and patterns observed during the pandemic. Will this optimistic scenario materialize?
Myers’ analysis, shared recently on the X platform, highlights a sharp increase in global liquidity. The global M2 money supply now stands at $137 trillion. This represents a notable increase from the $129 trillion recorded just six months ago. This 6.2% increase since March has not been seen since the 2020 monetary expansion.
Myers recalls that, following the March 2020 crash, global M2 grew by 21% toward the end of that year. Shortly after, with a slight delay, Bitcoin began a rally that multiplied its value by six between Q4 2020 and Q1 2021. Currently, gold has already reacted to this liquidity increase, but Bitcoin appears to be lagging, just as it did in 2020.
This phenomenon is not limited to the global sphere. In the United States, the M2 money supply also reached a new all-time high. According to data from Barchart, this figure recently surpassed $22 trillion. The monetary expansion occurs as central banks begin to cut interest rates, even as inflation persists.
Is Bitcoin Heading to $500,000 by 2026?
If Bitcoin were to exactly replicate its previous behavior in response to the M2 boom, the BTC/USD price would exceed $500,000 sometime in 2026. Although an exact copy of the move seems ambitious, other experts share the optimism about the effect of liquidity on scarce assets.
Asset manager Lawrence Lepard supported this view. Lepard described the 12% annualized M2 growth as the “real rate of inflation.” He also dismissed the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Lepard stated that the money “printer” hasn’t even fully turned on yet and anticipated that “a Bitcoin launch is coming”.
As the global economy grapples with these liquidity injections, the historical correlation remains a key indicator. The market is watching to see if Bitcoin will again act as a hedge against fiat currency devaluation. The next six months will be crucial to determine if the crypto asset follows the path of M2.
