Jake Cervinski, a well-known lawyer in the field of cryptocurrency, considers it highly unlikely that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve the launch of a stock exchange traded on Bitcoin ETF from VanEck and SolidX this week.
In a series of tweets, Chervinsky reminds that last week the SEC once again postponed its decision on Bitcoin ETF Bitwise Asset Management. At the same time, the last intermediate period, when the SEC is to decide on the ETF decision from VanEck, falls on Tuesday, May 21.
According to the lawyer, in previous similar cases, the SEC combined decisions on different ETFs and published them simultaneously. So, in March, the Commission announced the same day that it postpones decisions on applications submitted by VanEck and Bitwise with a difference of five days.
1 / The Bitwise & VanEck agreements were published on February 15 & 20 respectively. Those dates triggered the SEC's deadlines for reviewing the ETFs. I covered the SEC's ETF process & timeline here: https://t.co/h6MsXO76mp
– Jake Chervinsky (@jchervinsky) May 19, 2019
Thus, according to Chervinsky, the upcoming decision of the SEC will be made under "really unusual" circumstances. He also calls the deadline for the Commission of 90 days extremely important, because if a positive decision is not made, and instead another delay follows, the regulator will have to explain it and allow interested parties to provide the necessary comments.
Based on this, Cervinski suggests that the forthcoming Tuesday’s decision on VanEck may be something other than just another extension of the deadlines. At the same time, he does not think that now there are many reasons to believe in a positive outcome. A more likely scenario, he sees another postponement.
7 / So, if the SEC were VanEck, I would have been expected to be issued with Bitwise last week. It would not be possible to approve or deny VanEck instead.
Denial is far more likely than approval. I'll give you a few reasons why.
– Jake Chervinsky (@jchervinsky) May 19, 2019
“First, I would be surprised if, after six years of failures, the SEC approved the first in the history of Bitcoin-ETF, without taking advantage of the entire time provided by law. Slow progress allows the SEC to look thoughtful and scrupulous. The last decision date for VanEck is October 18, and a decision earlier will probably mean a failure, ”says Chervinski.
He also notes that the current state of affairs in the market is not conducive to ETF approval. Among the factors that are likely to force the SEC to deny VanEck, he cites the bitcoin volatility in recent weeks, as well as investigations related to fraud and manipulation. As a last, he cites the example of Bitfinex and its confrontation with the prosecutor's office of the State of New York.
Finally, the main factor, according to Chervinsky, is that if the last SEC decision on ETF Bitwise lists multiple reasons for which, in the near future, it is not necessary to count on approval, then the same reasons should equally apply to VanEck.
However, it is possible that last week the SEC employees could simply not have time to prepare a solution for the ETF VanEck. Summarizing, Chervinski estimates the probability of the transfer of terms by Bitcoin-ETF VanEck at 75%, failure – at 24.9%, approval – at only 0.1%.
17 / So heading into Monday, here's how I view the probabilities:
– Delay: 75.0%
– Denial: 24.9%
– Approval: 0.1%I'll keep you updated as the process plays out.
[end]
– Jake Chervinsky (@jchervinsky) May 19, 2019
Recall, in addition to Bitwise and VanEck, the SEC recently received another application to launch a cryptocurrency index fund. She was filed by Crescent Crypto Index Services LLC.
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