On April 8, the first issue of the Crypto-Analytics video clip was released on the BlockchainJournal YouTube channel. On the air of Xena.Exchange CEO, Anton Kravchenko spoke about Ilona Mask’s love for Dogecoin, the IEO boom and industry regulation.

The purpose of the rubric is to conduct a fundamental analysis of the industry and talk about trends that will affect the cryptocurrency market. New issues will be published every two weeks.

Editorial BlockchainJournal chose the most interesting moments from the premiere stream.

On the importance of reading news correctly

Proper reading of the news is very important. Let me give you a famous example: the statement of Jamie Dimon that bitcoin cannot be bought. When he said this, the news was picked up by all the media. You need to understand that a person like Jamie Dimon will not just evaluate an asset as large as Bitcoin. Then why does he do it? Most likely to buy bitcoin.

Jamie Dimon released the bad news, everyone started to sell, and at that moment it was bought. This is my guess, and Tim Draper confirmed it in a private conversation.

When this news comes out, you need to ask yourself: “Okay, why did it appear? Which of these consequences? ”Most likely, on the contrary, it’s time to buy.

New IEO speed records: Paytomat , VeriBlock and MultiVAC

About IEO I will tell an interesting story. We were in Hong Kong at TOKEN2049, met with the funds and realized that big funds came up with a new chip.

Foundations choose a person with a high profile: founder, 50, PhD, MIT. And then he presents some “space” project: a new Internet, super speed, everything is anonymous, no proxies are needed.

Several large funds go into $ 10 million in cryptocurrency, then Sequoia comes in at $ 300,000, the coolest fund that everyone in America loves. At Binance, with which the funds are clearly also friends, they take the project to IEO and send out information about how cool it is.

The project really looks cool: “space” founder, we will change the Internet, large funds have already invested. This thing, of course, scatters in a second, like a cookie.

The task of the funds is simple: put IEO on the exchange, haipan and exit. This topic is a self-fulfilling prophecy – they can do it several times a year: he built it himself, he sold it himself. However, I do not dare say what the investment will be. Maybe it may turn out that the super-founder on the money received will make the project.

People from the funds are not trying to break the money and go into the woods, but they have developed a model on which they earn. Maybe with companies everything will be fine, maybe not. This has little to do with investing.

Most likely, now everyone will start to do IEO and try to monopolize the market. This is not about investment, but about HYIP.

Ilon Mask admitted that he loves Dogecoin

There is hardly any combination behind this. It began with the fact that Dogecoin published a survey in which he suggested choosing the best candidate for the position of the project's general director, and Ilon Musk won it. Under the vote, he replied that he would be happy, and before that he wrote in his profile “Former Dogecoin CEO”.

The situation is funny, like Dogecoin itself. Ilon Mask likes to sign such things, it is cool, he adds popularity to himself and to the coin. In this case, Dogecoin, as far as I know, is not a fraudulent project, it simply popularizes itself through a meme. Probably, someone uses DOGE for calculations, but it is unlikely that Dogecoin will be used massively.

After the recent rise in Bitcoin prices, many predictions have appeared on the network. Everyone knows what will happen tomorrow: bullish rally , growth to $ 6,000 … Why do we need these forecasts?

People generally like to guess, because there is no responsibility for this. The analyst has such a joke: I always know the direction, but I do not always guess with time.

This week has really been a big increase, but let's see where it came from. From various sources it is rumored that a large order has become the reason. It seems to be true, because in just half an hour Bitcoin has risen in price by several hundred.

In this regard, I would like to tell you about three ways how to relate to the crypto terminal. The first is to assume that the industry lives in accordance with market practices. If you perceive the market like this, then bitcoin is likely to wait for a slow upward movement. Roughly speaking, it is $ 5000 at the end of this year, $ 6000 in a year, $ 7000 in another year, and so on. Why? Because the bubble was blown away. In this case, if the technology begins to be applied, it begins to grow.

I will immediately say about the third way – to think that it will be the same as in 2017. This path is incorrect. In 2017, there was such a bubble that every housewife bought Bitcoin. Everyone who was ready to buy Bitcoin bought it. Further entrance is waiting only for financial institutions. Their chances are a separate issue, but there will definitely be no second bubble.

There is good news too. There is a second way – to look at the crypto-market as a market where there is oligopoly, monopoly, and so on. If the market has a limited circle of participants controlling large steaks, then this circle of participants may well manipulate them.

If we assume that the Bitcoin market is quite manipulative, then we can try to figure it out, which we did. We sparred the history of Bitcoin balances from all wallets and chose those with $ 1 million.

The first thing we found out: with the help of some kind of software, large wallets begin to distribute the balances to small wallets. The news that the fourth largest Bitcoin wallet was empty was not about the sale of cryptocurrency by the owner. He just turned out to be the last to find this software and distribute his funds.

We have made a model of searching for purses that act in one. Funds from them are distributed by similar transactions: with different amounts, on different exchanges, at different times, but approximately in one period.

The second thing we found out: some of these clusters have a very high measure of risk-adjusted return (information ratio). We asked the question: “Which of them is the most informed?” And found a cluster in which 64 wallets with a total amount of $ 3 billion. This group bought Bitcoin in early December 2018, when it was at $ 3,700.

On purses of $ 3 billion, and nevertheless owners of purses were bought. Why? They knew for sure: everyone who wanted to sell bitcoin sold it. Most likely, this is not even a group of people, but the wallets of one person, which are controlled by software. The bottom line is: if you want to make money, you will not fight the market. Of the large wallets, no one drowns himself. They are well aware that you can not get out.

If the market is manipulative, then large wallets will be pampit. What is pamp? It is to buy bitcoins for $ 100 million at the moment when the market calmed down, and sell at $ 5,100. Then pick a moment and do it again.

There will probably be some more pamps. Large clusters will pull up bitcoin with large orders, and this will not be a one-time action. Their goal is to raise the price of bitcoin as high as possible so that new levels of support and resistance can be formed.

The US Congressmen submitted two bills to the Senate: “On the Protection of Consumer Rights of Virtual Currencies” and “On the Virtual Currency Market and Regulatory Competitiveness”. Will the SEC rush into the industry?

We should not forget that the SEC competence extends to the protection of residents of the United States only. For example, if you have a UK exchange, work in Europe, and you do not have users from the USA, then the SEC has nothing to do with you.

Regulation is likely to be. It is necessary to read the news as follows: the SEC has given the market a sign that it is going to regulate it, but so far it cannot describe how. If they follow the “prohibit all” system, they will bury the market, therefore, they will once again touch their finger.

IBM invests simultaneously in Ripple and Stellar. Future of these platforms

Ripple initially created a universal solution for banks. They are great fellows: they negotiated, collected a lot of valuable information. But Ripple is a startup. It is very hard to be a startup and try to become a blockchain for a bank.

It would be more logical if Goldman Sachs or JP Mororgan were involved in creating the blockchain. A large bank will make the blockchain so that the rest of the banks will trust it. Ripple and Stellar naturally have a problem with that. They can take the path "on the contrary": try to drag small banks to themselves, then payment systems, and so bend the market under them. Then they will succeed.

The next broadcast in the joint with Xena.Exchange column "Analysis of the cryptoindustry", see on Monday April 22 on the channel BlockchainJournal on YouTube . Subscribe!