Why in 2018 there was no tuzmeuna and what to expect from bitcoin

Analysts of various stripes can find an explanation for any trend in retrospect and state that they were “initially right” in their predictions. This is how myths are created about people who allegedly can predict crises based on their expert knowledge. These same people, by the way, have buried Bitcoin hundreds of times with a smug look in the media, but in the end the first cryptocurrency came out of stressful situations and reached new heights.

And we are not only talking about price peaks, but also about the development of the protocol and infrastructure. Bitcoin has shown that, despite significant pressure and a rather hostile environment, it comes out of crises much more durable, which speaks of its anti-fragility . Not without reason, many developers consider the bear market an ideal period for the active implementation of updates, since, to put it in the words of the founder of the venture capital firm Morgan Creek Anthony Pompiano , fewer and fewer “tourists” get in the way.

Why didn’t there be that same azureman in 2018? Probably, we can agree that the bull market cannot last forever, and the white line is always replaced by black. Many prominent members of the community generally believe that Bitcoin should not have gone to such heights in December 2017 , and the greed and greed of people overheated the market.

The community should ask a completely different question whether we need a native land at all, attracting the attention of regulators, scammers and people willing to mortgage the last property for speculation in a highly volatile market [while the latter then manage to complain to their Bitcoin and give loans there is nothing]. We need a gradual development and that everyone involved in it should understand why he does this and what result we want to come to.

It would seem that to convince a person that he needs financial freedom is easier than ever, because everyone wants to be free. In fact – this is a deep mistake. The desire to destroy the vicious system after 2008 did not last long, because the collective memory is short-lived. And as long as the majority expects only Tuzmeina from Bitcoin, nothing good will come of it.

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Initially, Bitcoin was conceived as decentralized money, a means of settlement without a central bank with limited emissions, but with the advent of a developed exchange infrastructure and derivatives, the first cryptocurrency turned into a commodity [commodity]. In this sense, the genesis idea is now implemented through the Lightning Network , which in just one year in the beta version showed tremendous results, and sidechains .

Supporters of anarchist views praise Bitcoin decentralization and the fact that it can not be disabled or disabled by court order. Nevertheless, the exchange infrastructure, which is used by a significant part of active users, is subject to strict rules of various jurisdictions. It would be difficult to deny that, if desired, the coordinated efforts of regulators could inflict enormous damage on the Bitcoin user base, which would have thrown off its development for years.

If you recall the recent money laundering scandals at Danske Bank and Deutsche Bank , then the regulation of cryptocurrency turnover in this context seems ridiculous. However, another notorious native, driven by greed, will once again create favorable conditions for further pressure on Bitcoin on all fronts.

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During the past bullish rally, which ended in January 2018, a huge number of digital assets appeared that have neither functions, nor user base, nor, therefore, any value. All this "garbage" is present in the listing of CoinMarketCap and many trading platforms, defaming the term "cryptocurrency".

A necessary condition for the recovery of the market in this way is not a new indigen, when investors get richer at the expense of other investors, but getting rid of ballast and migrating resources into working protocols, for the most part – into bitcoin.

Note that an interesting infographic, in which there is no place for frivolous price forecasts and tuzamuns, was presented by economist Murad Makhmudov.

The bitcoin of the bitcoin : pic.twitter.com/fwh8Ehsjw9

– Murad Mahmudov ? (@MustStopMurad) July 25, 2018

So, while we managed to prove only that the Bitcoin network is quite difficult to change, the protocol is resistant to censorship, social and technical attacks.

However, we still need to come to a reliable means of accumulation through educational initiatives, as well as the development of custodial and institutional solutions. He is convinced that Bitcoin is only at the beginning of the "monetary evolution", and over time, his life expectancy will only increase in accordance with the Lindy effect.

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During the collapse of the market in 2018, many inexperienced investors at some point even believed that Bitcoin would not be able to avoid the "death spiral" and falling to zero. Some of the arguments associated primarily with the consistent fall in prices and hashrate – the price falls, miners are turned off, the rest immediately sell the mined to cover costs, the price falls – may seem quite logical.

In this regard, it is worth remembering that Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market are no longer just retail investors, encryption and anarchists, but large companies and venture capital investors, who, despite the general panic, were quite active this year.

A kind of establishment of the industry is the Digital Currency Group (DCG) Barry Silbert, which somehow owns shares in the largest cryptocurrency investment companies, exchanges, manufacturers of hardware wallets and even Ripple.

And here you can see why I was right. The DCG is the new establishment. Like a gated community. With their own press, their own executive structure.
"Emanzipation from the banks", right?
Why fighting the establishment when you can become it.
"@ Mdudas" pic.twitter.com/mJ4qCPzrY3

– Tangleblog.com (@tangleblog) November 29, 2018

The same Coinbase, which at the beginning of its journey attracted investment from Silbert, has now acquired its own elite, managing various funds and developing popular protocols. Coinbase and DCG are actively lobbying for the interests of the industry in Washington, and the first is expanding the listing, conducting geographical expansion and buying up shares in promising start-ups, acting according to the Rockefeller principle: “ buy while blood is flowing ”.

And while the majority of users make chaotic decisions, they do not understand and cannot explain what the value of Bitcoin is, while many businesses in the industry lose their nerves, someone is building a real empire. Would they build it if they were afraid that Bitcoin would cease to exist?

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So what to expect from Bitcoin? First of all – the second largest upgrade in history, namely the implementation of the signatures of Schnorr. It is the Schnorr scheme that will open the way to scaling the network and increasing bandwidth, which is vital in order to attract new users, without which the nativeun is simply impossible.

Secondly, the growth and development of the Lightning Network and other solutions of the second layer is a prerequisite for competing with existing centralized payment systems. Without this, Bitcoin will not be able to realize its purpose, and then it will be possible to forget about the Tuzemuns forever.

Thirdly, the bitcoin dominance index will probably continue to grow , because sooner or later the market should begin to reject alien [read "unnecessary"] coins.

Probably, many are waiting for Bitcoin-ETF endorsements in the USA, but this event is in fact attached too much importance. The community had the same excessive expectations before the launch of Bitcoin futures, but they were not justified, since interest in the bitcoin spot trading continues to prevail.

Once most were laughing at those who wanted to fly into space, and right now a NASA probe is exploring the surface of Mars. At one time, most people thought that the Internet would change people's lives no more than fax. Now the majority is sure that money without central banks is a utopia, and they are believed to be either fools or people, to put it mildly, strange, but the truth is that those who laugh last are laughing. A lot of people still do not know how a simple Internet router works, what can we say about the future of the monetary system. Keep calm and hodl!

Nick schteringard

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