Many ask the question of when the cryptozyme will end and the next bullish race will begin. Well, it is difficult to answer with all certainty, it is nevertheless advisable to focus on 4 market signals, which may indicate a new upward rally of the main cryptocurrency .
1st signal: double bottom of BTC
If we observe the process of detecting the double bottom of a bitcoin course , this is a good sign that signals the end of a bearish pulse. It seems that this process has already taken place, in any case, the previous cycle from mid-2014 to the beginning of 2016 looked like this.
And here we see the current cycle, from mid-2017 to today.
As can be seen in the first chart, in early 2015 the market reached the bottom, this happened again in August of the same year. In the second graph, we see that at the end of 2018 the bottom was reached. Will there be another one in the near future?
At least this chart gives us another signal that repeats from the previous cycle.
2nd signal: bearish crossover, moving averages for 50-100 weeks
Looking back at these graphs, we can notice something else that happened shortly after the first bottom in 2015 and just repeated. This is a bearish intersection of moving averages for 50 and 100 weeks (MA). In 2015, approximately 5 months after the first bottom, we see a 50-week intersection of moving averages below 100 weeks.
Although this is a bearish signal, it can mean that the impulse for sellers has dried up. If this is not a coincidence, then we can notice the bearish crossover of the moving averages that has just occurred.
In the last cycle, the crossover occurred approximately 5 months after the first bottom, which corresponds to what we note on the current cycle. If the story repeats, the second bottom can be reached closer to the end of this year.
There is another signal that fits into the same structure, and this is due to the correlation between Bitcoin and Litecoin.
3rd signal: The dynamics of the course Litecoin
Litecoin recently gave a signal very similar to the one that preceded the previous bullish run. Analysis taken from a tweet issued by Coindesk Markets:
#litecoin bottomed out AT Roughly the Same | time as with the #bitcoin in 2015, But $ the LTC 's Trend bullish Became a well the before $ The BTC / USD.
It could be like picking up pic.twitter.com/fUBNbZq4FS
– CoinDesk Markets (@CoinDeskMarkets) March 5, 2019
Looking at the chart, it is clear that in the last market cycle, Litecoin was the first to break out of the bear market, apparently waiting for its own half.
For Litecoin and Bitcoin, this is a planned event, after which the block reward is halved. Litecoin is now out of the bearish trend, and this may be another sign that history is repeating itself.
In accordance with the diagram in the previous market cycle, the Litecoin halfling takes off up from the second bottom of Bitcoin. If the pattern continues, it again indicates the establishment of the bottom towards the end of the year.
For the final signal, we need to look at the bitcoin half.
4th signal: decrease in Bitcoin mining award by 2 times
The graph shows the bitcoin price movement on a logarithmic scale, it is compared with the coin's minting – a 2-fold decrease in the mining award for Bitcoin.
This chart shows that during the last two market cycles (which makes up most of Bitcoin's life), the price reaches the bottom about 1 year before the half, after which a bullish trend begins to form in 1-2 years.
Notice that the second bottom of the last cycle also fits into this structure, occurring about 1 year before the last half of the half. If this pattern continues, somewhere in the middle / end of 2019, we can count on a second bottom, about 1 year before the next half. After this, the bullish move will gain momentum by the end of 2021 / early 2022.
The fact that all these signals coincide with each other makes the situation optimistic. Looking at previous market movements, this is the best information a trader can work with.
At the same time, let's not forget that the story may not be repeated; There are no signals 100% accurately indicating further price movement.
Publication date 13.03.2019
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