The future of bitcoin: scenarios of bitcoin whale conspiracy theories and the views of traders

There is a rule of the trader, when you do not understand what is happening, it is better to do nothing. And looking at the current situation on the market more and more I want to send everything to such and such a grandmother, turn off the monitor and go fishing or run your favorite computer game …

Let's discuss and whether it is worth entering the market now or is it better to stand aside and work on your own business? And in order to make our conversation objective, let us analyze the traders' forecasts, consider scenarios of conspiracy theories of bitcoin-whales and summarize.

Traders forecasts

Let's start our review with bitcoin-bear Tony Weiss and today all traders are not very optimistic. It is logical that Ton saw again the forerunners of Bitcoin price reduction and even told in his video how to open a short from current levels. We will fall at first below $ 9000, and then already as lucky about the situation. True, Tony is not going to open the shorts himself right now, because he doesn’t like something, but it’s unclear exactly what. Here is such a pun.

Next we analyze the forecast of the trader Davincij15 . He, too, is looking down and waiting for the fall to $ 7,200. At the same time, he points out that the price will almost certainly drop to $ 8500. But what will happen next is still difficult to say, and if you open a short position, it is better to take profits at this level.

But Davincij15 believes that a walk to the $ 7,000 area seems very likely, and those who are going to enter the market in long-term, he advises to start buying already, because the price is so good. By the way, the last time Davinchi’s predictions have come true only the other way around, maybe now it will be like that, who knows …

And another trader is almost Bitcoin-maximalist Sunny Decree , who is probably the biggest optimist among our heroes or, as it is now fashionable to say, The Moon Boy. He is confident that the bullish bitcoin flag will work and we will not see a global fall right now. But before that there is a big chance that Bitcoin will drop a little lower and push off from the price of $ 8500.

And a little more analytics. On the TradingView platform at the time of the article preparation, technical analysis indicates the need to sell Bitcoin. And the index of fear and greed of Bitcoin also moved to the zone of fear , which indicates the desire of investors to quickly sell the asset, and then suddenly it will fall even lower.

Conspiracy theory

Now various traders and cryptobloggers are trying to sell us two scenarios.

The first conspiracy theory is that the cryptocurrency market will be squeezed even lower in order to arrange the grand season of the altcoins . And even Chris from MMCrypto channel turned out to be mixed up in this, because he released a video clip , where he spoke about the need to increase Bitcoin’s share of the market to 80% and then, the altcoins will start shooting like mad.

We will understand in more detail. The Bitcoin rate correlates with Altcoins and they fall even more than the first cryptocurrency. Therefore, Bitcoin whales will continue to roll the cryptocurrency market on a roller coaster, gradually moving lower and lower on the schedule.

Thus, the prices of altcoins will roll to the bottom level in December 2018, and if possible they will lower even lower. And then the market will turn sharply and the altcoins will start to grow in price several times faster than Bitcoin, as it was in December 2017.

But I want to warn those who follow this theory in order to make money on altcoins:

• No one will tell you exactly when the market is deployed and there is a chance not to catch the bottom.
• No need to pick up all the coins that are on the market and put in your investment portfolio.

Many of them are at risk never to rise and go to zero, because they already exist only as a fun for traders. So before you buy, be sure to conduct a detailed analysis of the asset and evaluate its chances of survival.

The second conspiracy theory is the opposite of the first, although at the end Bitcoin will still have to go down. It lies in the fact that now the market will draw a small consolidation, I mean the accumulation phase, catch up with more negative news so that traders actively open a short position. And then there will be a hard pamp up with a hint of a parabola. To bring out not only the shortsists, but also to lure as many people as possible into the moon train and make them buy bitcoin at a high price.

Signs of the second scenario, too. For example, take a look at the Bitcoin chart for the last 30 days, if now the course is a bit to push upwards closer to $ 11,000, then we will see a nice side touch. And so that people think less about the breakdown, fear for them is especially scorching, only US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin has criticized Bitcoin twice in recent days.

"I can assure you not to be uploaded on bitcoin" in 10 years, says Treasury Secretary Mnuchin #bitcoin pic.twitter.com/0J5acWQwRO

– Squawk Box (@SquawkCNBC) July 24, 2019

By the way, I liked the phrase of Stephen Mnuchin:

“I can assure you that in five to six years we will no longer think about Bitcoin. I will not talk about Bitcoin as Minister of Finance. ”

Someone will understand this as hitting a bitcoin, saying that everything will be regulated or even closed. And I see that completely different meaning, just in five years in the United States there will be another finance minister, that's all.

And the second scenario of conspiracy theory should end with a sharp collapse downward, after a new maximum was set for the price of 2019, and perhaps even a new BTC price record in history. That's when Tony Weiss's forecast for a huge correction will finally come true, which should open the way to the future native.

But traders are still not in a hurry to believe in this story and do not open short positions, too often they were sheared this year. Therefore, so far, according to statistics , on the Bitfinex exchange there are 3 times more longs than shorts, well, at the time of the preparation of this video, that was exactly the case.

HODL strategy

This is not financial advice and not the most unique idea. But I want to finish the article from where I started.

Regardless of whether Bitcoin is dropped now or first, the price will be pushed up and only then there will be a steep dive. In any case, then there will be a strong upward trend in the final of which is the coveted flight to the moon.

After all, we did not expect a new maximum before 2020 and the native to 2021. Therefore, the plan for long-term investments in Bitcoin remains unchanged, and now, while the market is in a situation of complete uncertainty, it is better to forget about the charts and keep your nerves.

Publication date 07/31/2019
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