The apparent “productivity scarcity” of artificial intelligence (AI) is reconfiguring capital flows and could act as an upside driver for the U.S. crypto market. The phenomenon is occurring as AI’s share of market gains and institutional rotation becomes increasingly notable, shaping expectations for where near-term growth might emerge.
The concentration of value in AI-linked companies has been extraordinary: investment in AI contributed roughly 75% of the S&P 500’s total returns and 90% of its market-cap increase since the end of 2022, according to market analyses. But measurable improvements in labor productivity have yet to materialize; that lag is being interpreted by some managers as a phase of structural investment, not a failure. Cathie Wood, of Ark Invest, describes this period as integration and infrastructure building where real performance arrives with delay.
In that context, returning liquidity and expectations of a Federal Reserve policy easing could trigger a rotation toward assets with immediate growth potential, among them cryptocurrencies and companies in the digital ecosystem. The interdependence is visible in concrete moves: institutional crypto purchases — including a reported $90 million purchase of Ethereum attributed to a major manager — and sporadic rises in crypto-mining stocks after investments by tech giants like Amazon, which at times pushed mining shares up by as much as 20%.
Crypto platforms and exchanges also show signs of institutional maturation: an exchange completed an IPO for $1.15 billion settled in stablecoins and obtained a key regulatory license in New York, consolidating a narrative of legitimacy and compliance.
Why AI’s productivity scarcity could drive crypto
Critical voices warn of potential corrections. Gareth Soloway flagged possible drops of 10–15% in markets that have overvalued AI expectations, and Goldman Sachs estimated that up to $19 trillion — in market value — could be pricing in productive impacts that are not yet visible. These warnings underscore the possibility of abrupt adjustments if evidence of productivity does not accelerate.
Even so, macro estimates indicate that AI could contribute between 0.5% and 0.6% to aggregate labor productivity growth, a figure that, while modest, has implications for fiscal sustainability and long-term profitability. For institutional investors who already integrate AI into investment processes, the search for yield translates into more sophisticated allocations toward digital assets and firms that demonstrate governance and compliance.
The current “drought” of AI productivity is redirecting capital and attention toward U.S. crypto, in a move that combines institutional purchases, regulatory advances, and narratives of technological rebuilding.
