Stablecoins could drain as much as $1 trillion in deposits from emerging‑market banks by 2028, according to Standard Chartered, as households swap local currency for dollar tokens that settle instantly and resist inflation. The shift would shrink loanable funds in markets such as Egypt, Pakistan, Colombia, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, pushing local rates higher and cutting credit supply. Analysts frame the move as a function of faster cross‑border transfers and dollar balances that bypass banks.
Standard Chartered expects dollar‑linked stablecoins to reach a $2 trillion global stock by 2028, while emerging‑market banks could lose up to $1 trillion in deposits. Users receive two core features: immediate cross‑border transfers and a dollar‑denominated balance outside traditional accounts. Tokens are issued by private companies and recorded on blockchains, moving both custody and payment rails outside the regulated banking system.
The impact on the stablecoin market
The U.S. Senate passed the GENIUS Act on 17 June 2025, setting licensing rules, reserve ratios and disclosure for payment stablecoins, though some designs are left out. In economies where capital preservation dominates return, rules alone may not halt the switch, sustaining deposit pressure and tightening domestic liquidity.
Banking liquidity drops as large withdrawals cut loan books and lift wholesale funding costs, eroding banks’ capacity to extend credit. Rules splinter as authorities cap crypto yield products while banks lobby for tighter limits to protect deposit bases. Remittances shift as stablecoins route migrant money and store value in high‑inflation states, deepening the move away from local currency holdings. Systemic risk looms with scenarios of up to $6.6 trillion in lost deposits, reviving debate on bank capital and reserve buffers.
The House of Representatives must still pass the GENIUS Act; in the meantime, market growth to 2028 will test the $1–$2 trillion forecasts and reveal how liquidity is redistributed across the global system.
