The recent rebound in Solana has reopened the question among traders and fund managers: is it a real recovery or a bear trap? The move rests on three legs: talk that regulators will approve spot ETFs that allow staking, wallets holding more than 100k SOL adding coins while prices fell, and mixed readings from momentum tools. Derivatives desks, flow funds and on-chain teams care because each leg changes how easily coins trade and how much leverage builds.
These dynamics shape liquidity, positioning and technical risk, setting the stage for whether the rally extends or reverses. The bull trap case starts with the belief that institutions will rush in once a spot ETF with staking exists. Nate Geraci and others say approval may come soon and would pull in fresh cash.
Chain data show that the largest wallets bought during the drops, which some read as a vote of confidence. Yet momentum is stretched: the RSI prints 70.30, a zone that has marked tops before, and the MACD histogram has shrunk for three days, a pattern that often appears as thrust fades.
Technical indicators of this trend in Solana
The broader trend still looks fragile. From mid-October 2024 to mid-April 2025 the price recorded lower highs while the 20-day simple average stayed under both the 50-day as well as the 200-day lines, a textbook downtrend. At the same time 96.56 % of all SOL now sits in profit, so any slide would let holders sell at a gain.
Key levels and targets frame the next move. The levels that matter sit at 250 – 280 USD (supply), 200 USD (support) and 176 – 180 USD (break-down point); a daily close back above 176 – 180 USD would kill the bear case. Price targets diverge: some desks pencil in 400 USD on a clear break, while Token Metrics gives 768 USD bear, 926 USD base and 1 083 USD bull.
RSI counts the ratio of up days to down days to flag when a coin has risen too fast. MACD subtracts a longer average from a shorter one to show if speed is rising or falling. SMA is the plain mean of the last n closes and defines trend direction.
With almost every coin in profit, a pullback could unlock selling and drain order book depth, a drag on futures funding rates. A fake move up can force shorts to cover and lift open interest, adding volatility; if the ETF arrives the cash-and-carry basis could widen or flows could surge.
A daily close under 200 USD would confirm the correction view, while a fast climb back through 176 – 180 USD would reject it. A prudent trading approach waits for confirmation: look for volume, a MACD cross and a successful retest of the 50-day SMA before entering longs.
The next hinge is the ETF decision and the reaction at 176 – 180 USD. Approval would steer new cash into the market, but only a technical follow-through will show whether the rally was a trap or the first leg of a new uptrend.
