Solana fell about 5% to $145 after losing the key $150 support, a move that triggered stop‑loss cascades and pushed trading activity higher. The significance lies in a clear divergence between short‑term technical pressure and continued institutional inflows into SOL‑linked ETFs, a clash of time horizons that shapes liquidity and operational risk.
The drop was swift and decisive, with SOL sliding from $153 to $145; it retraced 5.24% to $145.43 and closed at new intraday lows in a sequence that accelerated during the final hour of trading. Volume spiked 13.23% versus the weekly average, with peaks of 2.49 million during the collapse period, which analysts interpret as institutional distribution that overcame buy demand.
Technically, the loss of $150 opened immediate targets at $142–$144, with more pessimistic scenarios between $129 and $142 if bearish momentum persists. The relevant resistance now sits near $157.25, while MACD and ADX showed a bearish bias and the RSI stood at 37.86, alongside a break below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level in the $146.75–$211.11 leg.
The session underscored immediate market fragility even as longer‑horizon demand remained intact via ETF allocations, highlighting how positioning and flows can temporarily move in opposite directions.
On‑chain activity has weakened in tandem with price: daily active addresses fell to 3.3 million from more than 9 million in January, the DeFi user base has shrunk by 50% since early June, and the market capitalization of stablecoins on the network contracted by $2.5m. These data suggest a pullback in usage demand that amplifies technical pressure, as market coverage highlights.
A notable paradox persists between deteriorating price/on‑chain signals and positive ETF flows. ETFs accumulated eleven consecutive days of inflows, totaling $417m, with BSOL (Bitwise) concentrating $369m in assets, according to cited records. On the regulatory backdrop, some analysts hold very high expectations for ETF approval in 2025; Bloomberg consulted Eric Balchunas, who described the probability as “100% certainty” in public remarks.
The combination of a technical breakdown and weaker network activity raises the risk premium for quick‑entry and leveraged strategies. Managers evaluating re‑entry may watch for confirmation of support in $142–$144 and for the absorption of selling volume before expecting stabilization.
ETF inflows signal an institutional bet with a longer horizon, which could sustain structural demand if on‑chain activity recovers, even as short‑term technicals remain fragile.
In the coming sessions, the market will watch whether $142–$144 holds as a floor and whether ETF inflows continue; failing that, the levels cited at $129–$142 would become immediate operational targets, while any recovery will require confirmation of buying volume and stronger on‑chain activity.
